Related papers: Assessment of Point Process Models for Earthquake …
The burgeoning need to sequester anthropogenic CO$_2$ for climate mitigation and the need for energy sustenance leading upto enhanced geothermal energy production has made it incredibly critical to study potential earthquakes due to fluid…
Quantification of the impact of uncertainty in material properties as well as the input ground motion on structural responses is an important step in implementing a performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Among various…
Verifying probabilistic forecasts for extreme events is a highly active research area because popular media and public opinions are naturally focused on extreme events, and biased conclusions are readily made. In this context, classical…
In many organisations, accurate forecasts are essential for making informed decisions for a variety of applications from inventory management to staffing optimization. Whatever forecasting model is used, changes in the underlying process…
We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…
Suppose that a sequence of data points follows a distribution of a certain parametric form, but that one or more of the underlying parameters may change over time. This paper addresses various natural questions in such a framework. We…
The article discusses the possibilities of three-step early warning and short-term prediction of earthquakes based on the classical geological model of fault formation and a model of the generation of electromagnetic emissions detected…
Endurance time method is a time history dynamic analysis in which structures are subjected to predesigned intensifying excitations. This method provides a tool for response prediction that correlates structural responses to the intensity of…
The inability to correctly resolve rumours circulating online can have harmful real-world consequences. We present a method for incorporating model and data uncertainty estimates into natural language processing models for automatic rumour…
In model checking for regressions, nonparametric estimation-based tests usually have tractable limiting null distributions and are sensitive to oscillating alternative models, but suffer from the curse of dimensionality. In contrast,…
There are different kinds of intensity measures to characterize the main properties of the earthquake records. This paper proposes a simulation-based approach to compute correlation coefficients of motion duration and intensity measures of…
A prominent feature of earthquakes is their empirical laws including memory (clustering) in time and space. Several earthquake forecasting models, like the EpidemicType Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, were developed based on earthquake…
Amongst the available technologies for earthquake research, remote sensing has been commonly used due to its unique features such as fast imaging and wide image-acquisition range. Nevertheless, early studies on pre-earthquake and…
A long noted difficulty when assessing the reliability (or calibration) of forecasting systems is that reliability, in general, is a hypothesis not about a finite dimensional parameter but about an entire functional relationship. A…
We present a machine learning approach for the aftershock forecasting of Japanese earthquake catalogue from 2015 to 2019. Our method takes as sole input the ground surface deformation as measured by Global Positioning System (GPS) stations…
When considering many survival models, decisions become more challenging in health economic evaluation. In this paper, we present a set of methods to assist with selecting the most appropriate parametric survival models. The methods…
Thermal history models, that have been used to understand the geological history of Earth, are now being coupled to climate models to map conditions that allow planets to maintain surface water over geologic time - a criteria considered…
On 1 August 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched a prospective and comparative earthquake predictability experiment in Italy. The goal of the CSEP-Italy experiment is to test earthquake…
Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes…
This work presents a framework to inversely quantify uncertainty in the model parameters of the friction model using earthquake data via the Bayesian inference. The forward model is the popular rate- and state- friction (RSF) model along…