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The spread of an infectious disease can, in some cases, promote the propagation of other pathogens favouring violent outbreaks, which cause a discontinuous transition to an endemic state. The topology of the contact network plays a crucial…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-03-21 Peng-Bi Cui , Francesca Colaiori , Claudio Castellano

Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-12-17 Li Chen , Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad , Weiran Cai , Peter Grassberger

This article describes a simple Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model fitting with COVID-19 data for the month of march 2020 in New York (NY) state. The model is a classical SIR, but is non-autonomous; the rate of susceptible people…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-11 Benjamin Ambrosio , M. A. Aziz-Alaoui

We consider an SIR epidemic model propagating on a configuration model network, where the degree distribution of the vertices is given and where the edges are randomly matched. The evolution of the epidemic is summed up into three…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-05-09 Laurent Decreusefond , Jean-Stéphane Dhersin , Pascal Moyal , Viet Chi Tran

By means of numerical simulations and epidemic analysis, the transition point of the stochastic, asynchronous Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model on a square lattice is found to be c_0=0.1765005(10), where c is the probability a…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2010-11-18 Tânia Tomé , Robert M. Ziff

Power-law scalings are ubiquitous to physical phenomena undergoing a continuous phase transition. The classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemics is one such example where the scaling behavior near a critical point has…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-18 Sarabjeet Singh , Christopher R. Myers

This paper proposes a novel discrete-time multi-virus SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model that captures the spread of competing SIR epidemics over a population network. First, we provide a sufficient condition for the infection level…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-04-05 Ciyuan Zhang , Sebin Gracy , Tamer Basar , Philip E. Pare

The mobility patterns of individuals in China during the early outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic exhibit reversible changes -- in many regions, the mobility first decreased significantly and later restored. Based on this observation, here…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-10-25 Xincheng Shu , Zhongyuan Ruan

We consider the contact process on a dynamic graph defined as a random $d$-regular graph with a stationary edge-switching dynamics. In this graph dynamics, independently of the contact process state, each pair $\{e_1,e_2\}$ of edges of the…

In this paper we study a susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model with asymptomatic patients, contact tracing and isolation on a configuration network. Using degree based approximation, we derive a system of differential equations for…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2022-12-20 Duan-Shin Lee , Ting-Zhe Liu , Ruhui Zhang , Cheng-Shang Chang

In this paper, we introduce a general framework for co-infection as cooperative SIR dynamics. We first solve analytically CGCG model [1] and then the generalized model in symmetric scenarios. We calculate transition points, order parameter,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-07-24 Fatemeh Zarei , Saman Moghimi-Araghi , Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad

We investigate phase transitions associated with three control methods for epidemics on small world networks. Motivated by the behavior of SARS-CoV-2, we construct a theoretical SIR model of a virus that exhibits presymptomatic,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-07-13 Benjamin Braun , Başak Taraktaş , Brian Beckage , Jane Molofsky

Waiting times between two consecutive infection and recovery events in spreading processes are often assumed to be exponentially distributed, which results in Markovian (i.e., memoryless) continuous spreading dynamics. However, this is not…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-07-27 Lucas Böttcher , Nino Antulov-Fantulin

Two factors that are often ignored but could play a crucial role in the progression of an infectious disease are the distributions of inherent susceptibility ($\sigma_{inh}$) and external infectivity ($\iota_{ext}$), in a given population.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-01-01 Saumyak Mukherjee , Sayantan Mondal , Biman Bagchi

Recent studies on network geometry, a way of describing network structures as geometrical objects, are revolutionizing our way to understand dynamical processes on networked systems. Here, we cope with the problem of epidemic spreading,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-03-04 Joan T. Matamalas , Sergio Gómez , Alex Arenas

It is the main purpose of this paper to introduce a graph-valued stochastic process in order to model the spread of a communicable infectious disease. The major novelty of the SIR model we promote lies in the fact that the social network on…

Applications · Statistics 2014-02-06 Charanpal Dhanjal , Stéphan Clémençon

We study the phase transition from the persistence phase to the extinction phase for the SIRS (susceptible/ infected/ refractory/ susceptible) model of diseases spreading on the networks. We derive an analytical expression of the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-11-18 M. Ali Saif

Starting from a stochastic individual-based description of an SIS epidemic spreading on a random network, we study the dynamics when the size $n$ of the network tends to infinity. We recover in the limit an infinite-dimensional…

In this paper, we study the dynamics of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model on a network with community structure, namely the stochastic block model (SBM). As usual, the SIR model is a stochastic model for an epidemic where…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-10 Christian Borgs , Karissa Huang , Christian Ikeokwu

We present general results for the contact process by a method which applies to all transitive graphs of bounded degree, including graphs of exponential growth. The model's infection rates are varied through a control parameter, for which…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-09-29 Michael Aizenman , Paul Jung