Related papers: Parameter inference from hitting times for perturb…
Aoristic data can be described by a marked point process in time in which the points cannot be observed directly but are known to lie in observable intervals, the marks. We consider Bayesian state estimation for the latent points when the…
For systems in an externally controllable time-dependent potential, the optimal protocol minimizes the mean work spent in a finite-time transition between two given equilibrium states. For overdamped dynamics which ignores inertia effects,…
This paper offers a qualitative insight into the convergence of Bayesian parameter inference in a setup which mimics the modeling of the spread of a disease with associated disease measurements. Specifically, we are interested in the…
We consider a system of $N$ Hawkes processes and observe the actions of a subpopulation of size $K \le N$ up to time $t$, where $K$ is large. The influence relationships between each pair of individuals are modeled by i.i.d.Bernoulli($p$)…
Brownian particles in random potentials show an extended regime of subdiffusive dynamics at intermediate times. The asymptotic diffusive behavior is often established at very long times and thus cannot be accessed in experiments or…
We study the statistics of near-extreme events of Brownian motion (BM) on the time interval [0,t]. We focus on the density of states (DOS) near the maximum \rho(r,t) which is the amount of time spent by the process at a distance r from the…
We consider a model of Brownian motion on a bounded open interval with instantaneous jumps. The jumps occur at a spatially dependent rate given by a positive parameter times a continuous function positive on the interval and vanishing on…
Consider the Slepian process $S$ defined by $ S(t)=B(t+1)-B(t),t\in [0,1]$ with $B(t),t\in \R$ a standard Brownian motion.In this contribution we analyze the joint distribution between the maximum $m_{s}=\max_{0\leq u\leq s}S(u)$ certain…
The conditional density of Brownian motion is considered given the max, B(t|\max), as well as those with additional information: B(t|close, max), B(t|close, max, min) and B(t|max, min) where the close is the final value: B(t=1)=c and t in…
The approach to the theory of a relativistic random process is considered by the path integral method as Brownian motion taking into account the boundedness of speed. An attempt was made to build a relativistic analogue of the Wiener…
We consider a population of $N$ individuals, of which we observe the number of actions as time evolves. For each couple of individuals $(i,j)$, $j$ may or not influence $i$, which we model by i.i.d. Bernoulli$(p)$-random variables, for some…
Difference-in-differences is based on a parallel trends assumption, which states that changes over time in average potential outcomes are independent of treatment assignment, possibly conditional on covariates. With time-varying treatments,…
Time-limited states characterise many dynamical processes on networks: disease infected individuals recover after some time, people forget news spreading on social networks, or passengers may not wait forever for a connection. These…
Extreme events can come either from point processes, when the size or energy of the events is above a certain threshold, or from time series, when the intensity of a signal surpasses a threshold value. We are particularly concerned by the…
In stochastic resonance, a periodically forced Brownian particle in a double-well potential jumps between minima at rare increments, the prediction of which poses a major theoretical challenge. Here, we use a path-integral method to find a…
In health cohort studies, repeated measures of markers are often used to describe the natural history of a disease. Joint models allow to study their evolution by taking into account the possible informative dropout usually due to clinical…
We propose a formula of time-series prediction by means of three states random field Ising model (RFIM). At the economic crisis due to disasters or international disputes, the stock price suddenly drops. The macroscopic phenomena should be…
We study the maximum of a Brownian motion with a parabolic drift; this is a random variable that often occurs as a limit of the maximum of discrete processes whose expectations have a maximum at an interior point. We give series expansions…
Longitudinal settings involving outcome, competing risks and censoring events occurring and recurring in continuous time are common in medical research, but are often analyzed with methods that do not allow for taking post-baseline…
We study an interacting particle system whose dynamics depends on an interacting random environment. As the number of particles grows large, the transition rate of the particles slows down (perhaps because they share a common resource of…