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Related papers: Sensitivity analysis in a market with memory

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We consider the infinite dimensional Heston stochastic volatility model proposed in \arXiv:1706:03500. The price of a forward contract on a non-storable commodity is modelled by a generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process in the Filipovi\'{c}…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-23 Fred Espen Benth , Giulia Di Nunno , Iben Cathrine Simonsen

We propose a general interpretation for long-range correlation effects in the activity and volatility of financial markets. This interpretation is based on the fact that the choice between `active' and `inactive' strategies is subordinated…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Jean-Philippe Bouchaud , Irene Giardina , Marc Mezard

Sensitivity analysis is concerned with understanding how the model output depends on uncertainties (variances) in inputs and then identifies which inputs are important in contributing to the prediction imprecision. Uncertainty determination…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-01-04 Yueying Zhu , Qiuping Alexandre Wang , Wei Li , Xu Cai

In observational studies, exposures are often continuous rather than binary or discrete. At the same time, sensitivity analysis is an important tool that can help determine the robustness of a causal conclusion to a certain level of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-15 Jeffrey Zhang

We propose and discuss sensitivity metrics for reliability analysis, which are based on the value of information. These metrics are easier to interpret than other existing sensitivity metrics in the context of a specific decision and they…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-12-03 Daniel Straub , Max Ehre , Iason Papaioannou

We propose a general interpretation for long-range correlation effects in the activity and volatility of financial markets. This interpretation is based on the fact that the choice between `active' and `inactive' strategies is subordinated…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-11-07 Irene Giardina , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud , Marc Mézard

We study a market model in which the volatility of the stock may jump at a random time from a fixed value to another fixed value. This model was already described in the literature. We present a new approach to the problem, based on partial…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Miquel Montero

Global oil price is an important factor in determining many economic variables in the world's economy. It is generally modeled as a stochastic process and have been studied through different techniques by comparing the historic time series…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-05-31 Sina Aghaei

Understanding model's sensitivity to its training data is crucial but can also be challenging and costly, especially during training. To simplify such issues, we present the Memory-Perturbation Equation (MPE) which relates model's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Peter Nickl , Lu Xu , Dharmesh Tailor , Thomas Möllenhoff , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan

Global sensitivity analysis aims at quantifying the impact of input variability onto the variation of the response of a computational model. It has been widely applied to deterministic simulators, for which a set of input parameters has a…

Computation · Statistics 2021-06-01 X. Zhu , B. Sudret

We analyze the relative price change of assets starting from basic supply/demand considerations subject to arbitrary motivations. The resulting stochastic differential equation has coefficients that are functions of supply and demand. We…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-08-26 Carey Caginalp , Gunduz Caginalp

Prediction markets show considerable promise for developing flexible mechanisms for machine learning. Here, machine learning markets for multivariate systems are defined, and a utility-based framework is established for their analysis. This…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-03-19 Amos Storkey

We study the local volatility function in the Foreign Exchange market where both domestic and foreign interest rates are stochastic. This model is suitable to price long-dated FX derivatives. We derive the local volatility function and…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2012-04-04 Griselda Deelstra , Grégory Rayée

This paper studies local asymptotic relationship between two scalar estimates. We define sensitivity of a target estimate to a control estimate to be the directional derivative of the target functional with respect to the gradient direction…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-05-24 Yaroslav Mukhin

This paper provides a framework to quantify the sensitivity associated with behavioral models based on Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT). These are used to design dynamic pricing strategies aimed at maximizing performance metrics of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-04-20 Vineet Jagadeesan Nair , Yue Guan , Anuradha M. Annaswamy , H. Eric Tseng , Baljeet Singh

In this paper we perform robustness and sensitivity analysis of several continuous-time stochastic volatility (SV) models with respect to the process of market calibration. The analyses should validate the hypothesis on importance of the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2019-12-17 Jan Pospíšil , Tomáš Sobotka , Philipp Ziegler

The literature on volatility modelling and option pricing is a large and diverse area due to its importance and applications. This paper provides a review of the most significant volatility models and option pricing methods, beginning with…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2009-04-09 Sovan Mitra

In this work we present a general representation formula for the price of a vulnerable European option, and the related CVA in stochastic (either rough or not) volatility models for the underlying's price, when admitting correlation with…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-04-26 Elisa Alòs , Fabio Antonelli , Alessandro Ramponi , Sergio Scarlatti

Nowadays, the numerical models of real-world structures are more precise, more complex and, of course, more time-consuming. Despite the growth of a computational effort, the exploration of model behaviour remains a complex task. The…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2014-10-17 Eliska Janouchova , Anna Kucerova

New continuous and stochastic extensions of the minority game, devised as a fundamental model for a market of competitive agents, are introduced and studied in the context of statistical physics. The new formulation reproduces the key…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Andrea Cavagna , Juan P. Garrahan , Irene Giardina , David Sherrington