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This work studies the problem of stochastic dynamic filtering and state propagation with complex beliefs. The main contribution is GP-SUM, a filtering algorithm tailored to dynamic systems and observation models expressed as Gaussian…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-02-01 Maria Bauza , Alberto Rodriguez

This article addresses the problem of efficient Bayesian inference in dynamic systems using particle methods and makes a number of contributions. First, we develop a correlated pseudo-marginal (CPM) approach for Bayesian inference in state…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-22 P. Choppala , D. Gunawan , J. Chen , M. -N. Tran , R. Kohn

Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models are ubiquitous in statistics, econometrics, information engineering and signal processing. Particle methods, also known as Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, provide reliable numerical…

Computation · Statistics 2015-09-11 Nikolas Kantas , Arnaud Doucet , Sumeetpal S. Singh , Jan Maciejowski , Nicolas Chopin

Gaussian process state-space model (GPSSM) is a fully probabilistic state-space model that has attracted much attention over the past decade. However, the outputs of the transition function in the existing GPSSMs are assumed to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-16 Zhidi Lin , Lei Cheng , Feng Yin , Lexi Xu , Shuguang Cui

The goal of system identification is to learn about underlying physics dynamics behind the time-series data. To model the probabilistic and nonparametric dynamics model, Gaussian process (GP) have been widely used; GP can estimate the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-22 Young-Jin Park , Han-Lim Choi

Differential equations are important mechanistic models that are integral to many scientific and engineering applications. With the abundance of available data there has been a growing interest in data-driven physics-informed models.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Oliver Hamelijnck , Arno Solin , Theodoros Damoulas

The modeling and simulation of dynamical systems is a necessary step for many control approaches. Using classical, parameter-based techniques for modeling of modern systems, e.g., soft robotics or human-robot interaction, is often…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-12-01 Thomas Beckers , Sandra Hirche

The proliferation of capable and efficient machine learning (ML) models marks one of the strongest methodological shifts in signal processing (SP) in its nearly 100-year history. ML models support the development of SP systems that…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-01 Daniel Waxman , Fernando Llorente , Petar M. Djurić

Parameter identification and comparison of dynamical systems is a challenging task in many fields. Bayesian approaches based on Gaussian process regression over time-series data have been successfully applied to infer the parameters of a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-04 Philippe Wenk , Alkis Gotovos , Stefan Bauer , Nico Gorbach , Andreas Krause , Joachim M. Buhmann

Nonlinear stochastic motion presents significant challenges for Bayesian particle tracking. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a framework to construct an invertible transformation that maps the nonlinear state-space model (SSM)…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-13 Yonatan L. Ashenafi

Continuous-time state-space models (SSMs) are flexible tools for analysing irregularly sampled sequential observations that are driven by an underlying state process. Corresponding applications typically involve restrictive assumptions…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-29 Sina Mews , Roland Langrock , Marius Ötting , Houda Yaqine , Jost Reinecke

We consider the problem of sequential estimation of the unknowns of state-space and deep state-space models that include estimation of functions and latent processes of the models. The proposed approach relies on Gaussian and deep Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Yuhao Liu , Marzieh Ajirak , Petar Djuric

Identifying dynamical system (DS) is a vital task in science and engineering. Traditional methods require numerous calls to the DS solver, rendering likelihood-based or least-squares inference frameworks impractical. For efficient parameter…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-19 Ying Zhou , Jinglai Li , Xiang Zhou , Hongqiao Wang

In this paper we introduce a novel online time series forecasting model we refer to as the pM-GP filter. We show that our model is equivalent to Gaussian process regression, with the advantage that both online forecasting and online…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-10-13 Yves-Laurent Kom Samo , Stephen J. Roberts

We introduce a novel unsupervised learning method for time series data with latent dynamical structure: the recognition-parametrized Gaussian state space model (RP-GSSM). The RP-GSSM is a probabilistic model that learns Markovian Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-30 Samo Hromadka , Kai Biegun , Lior Fox , James Heald , Maneesh Sahani

In this work, we present a novel approach to system identification for dynamical systems, based on a specific class of Deep Gaussian Processes (Deep GPs). These models are constructed by interconnecting linear dynamic GPs (equivalent to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-11 Alessio Benavoli , Dario Piga , Marco Forgione , Marco Zaffalon

We study maximum likelihood estimation for spatial generalized linear mixed models with Gaussian process approximations using a stochastic Newton-Raphson algorithm. We consider two Gaussian Process approximations in this context: spectral…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Samuel I. Watson , Yixin Wang , Emanuele Giorgi

State-space models are ubiquitous in the statistical literature since they provide a flexible and interpretable framework for analyzing many time series. In most practical applications, the state-space model is specified through a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-18 Thi Tuyet Trang Chau , Pierre Ailliot , Valérie Monbet

Bayesian methods are increasingly being applied to parameterize mechanistic process models used in environmental prediction and forecasting. In particular, models describing ecosystem dynamics with multiple states that are linear and…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-19 John W. Smith , Leah R. Johnson , Robert Q. Thomas

In spite of the diverse literature on nonstationary spatial modeling and approximate Gaussian process (GP) methods, there are no general approaches for conducting fully Bayesian inference for moderately sized nonstationary spatial data sets…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-01 Mark D. Risser , Daniel Turek