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Current approaches in approximate inference for Bayesian neural networks minimise the Kullback-Leibler divergence to approximate the true posterior over the weights. However, this approximation is without knowledge of the final application,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-11 Adam D. Cobb , Stephen J. Roberts , Yarin Gal

Variational Inference (VI) is a popular alternative to asymptotically exact sampling in Bayesian inference. Its main workhorse is optimization over a reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence (RKL), which typically underestimates the tail of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-01 Ghassen Jerfel , Serena Wang , Clara Fannjiang , Katherine A. Heller , Yian Ma , Michael I. Jordan

Simultaneous predictive distributions for independent Poisson observables are investigated. A class of improper prior distributions for Poisson means is introduced. The Bayesian predictive distributions based on priors from the introduced…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Fumiyasu Komaki

Gibbs posteriors are proportional to a prior distribution multiplied by an exponentiated loss function, with a key tuning parameter weighting information in the loss relative to the prior and providing a control of posterior uncertainty.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Steven Winter , Omar Melikechi , David B. Dunson

Many modern experiments, such as microarray gene expression and genome-wide association studies, present the problem of estimating a large number of parallel effects. Bayesian inference is a popular approach for analyzing such data by…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-26 J G Liao , Arthur Berg , Timothy L McMurry

Contemporary focus on selective inference has renewed interest in the theory of selection models. In this paper, we analyze the asymptotic properties of selection models built on independent and identically distributed observations. We show…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-16 Daniel G. Rasines , G. Alastair Young

Hierarchical parametric models consisting of observable and latent variables are widely used for unsupervised learning tasks. For example, a mixture model is a representative hierarchical model for clustering. From the statistical point of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-01-24 Keisuke Yamazaki

In the usual Bayesian setting, a full probabilistic model is required to link the data and parameters, and the form of this model and the inference and prediction mechanisms are specified via de Finetti's representation. In general, such a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Yu Luo , David A. Stephens , Daniel J. Graham , Emma J. McCoy

We study posterior contraction behaviors for parameters of interest in the context of Bayesian mixture modeling, where the number of mixing components is unknown while the model itself may or may not be correctly specified. Two…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-17 Aritra Guha , Nhat Ho , XuanLong Nguyen

Shape restrictions such as monotonicity on functions often arise naturally in statistical modeling. We consider a Bayesian approach to the problem of estimation of a monotone regression function and testing for monotonicity. We construct a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-08-05 Moumita Chakraborty , Subhashis Ghosal

The remarkable generalization performance of large-scale models has been challenging the conventional wisdom of the statistical learning theory. Although recent theoretical studies have shed light on this behavior in linear models and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-18 Tomoya Wakayama

Under model misspecification, the MLE generally converges to the pseudo-true parameter, the parameter corresponding to the distribution within the model that is closest to the distribution from which the data are sampled. In many problems,…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-11-02 Peter Hoff , Jon Wakefield

We present an error-diagnostic validation method for posterior distributions in Bayesian signal inference, an advancement of a previous work. It transfers deviations from the correct posterior into characteristic deviations from a uniform…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2013-11-05 Sebastian Dorn , Niels Oppermann , Torsten A. Enßlin

This paper aims at developing a quasi-Bayesian analysis of the nonparametric instrumental variables model, with a focus on the asymptotic properties of quasi-posterior distributions. In this paper, instead of assuming a distributional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-21 Kengo Kato

We study frequentist risk properties of predictive density estimators for mean mixtures of multivariate normal distributions, involving an unknown location parameter $\theta \in \mathbb{R}^d$, and which include multivariate skew normal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-02 Pankaj Bhagwat , Eric Marchand

Bayesian synthetic likelihood is a widely used approach for conducting Bayesian analysis in complex models where evaluation of the likelihood is infeasible but simulation from the assumed model is tractable. We analyze the behaviour of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-17 David T. Frazier , Christopher Drovandi , David J. Nott

The nonparametric regression model with normal errors has been extensively studied, both from the frequentist and Bayesian viewpoint. A central result in Bayesian nonparametrics is that under assumptions on the prior, the data-generating…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-24 Paul Rosa

Density estimation represents one of the most successful applications of Bayesian nonparametrics. In particular, Dirichlet process mixtures of normals are the gold standard for density estimation and their asymptotic properties have been…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-02 Antonio Canale , Pierpaolo De Blasi

Predictive Bayesian inference (PBI) represents a model-and prior-agnostic approach to standard Bayesian inference which allows users to quantify uncertainty for a functional of interest only by specifying a forward predictive model for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 David T. Frazier , Hui Wang

Robust Bayesian linear regression is a classical but essential statistical tool. Although novel robustness properties of posterior distributions have been proved recently under a certain class of error distributions, their sufficient…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Yasuyuki Hamura , Kaoru Irie , Shonosuke Sugasawa