Related papers: Accelerating Parametric Probabilistic Verification
Probabilistic model checking mainly concentrates on techniques for reasoning about the probabilities of certain path properties or expected values of certain random variables. For the quantitative system analysis, however, there is also…
Performing Bayesian inference on large spatio-temporal models requires extracting inverse elements of large sparse precision matrices for marginal variances, as well as estimating model hyperparameters. Although direct matrix factorizations…
Branching processes are a class of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) prevalent for modeling stochastic population dynamics in ecology, biology, epidemiology, and many other fields. The transient or finite-time behavior of these systems…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often used for approximate inference inside learning, but their slow mixing can be difficult to diagnose and the approximations can seriously degrade learning. To alleviate these issues, we…
We study the complexity of reductions for weighted reachability in parametric Markov decision processes. That is, we say a state p is never worse than q if for all valuations of the polynomial indeterminates it is the case that the maximal…
This paper considers large families of Markov chains (MCs) that are defined over a set of parameters with finite discrete domains. Such families occur in software product lines, planning under partial observability, and sketching of…
Markov chains are a natural and well understood tool for describing one-dimensional patterns in time or space. We show how to infer $k$-th order Markov chains, for arbitrary $k$, from finite data by applying Bayesian methods to both…
The availability of data sets with large numbers of variables is rapidly increasing. The effective application of Bayesian variable selection methods for regression with these data sets has proved difficult since available Markov chain…
We propose a numerical technique for parameter inference in Markov models of biological processes. Based on time-series data of a process we estimate the kinetic rate constants by maximizing the likelihood of the data. The computation of…
In the paper, we study a new rate of convergence estimate for homogeneous discrete-time nonlinear Markov chains based on the Markov-Dobrushin condition. This result generalizes the convergence estimates for any positive number of transition…
We revisit the symbolic verification of Markov chains with respect to finite horizon reachability properties. The prevalent approach iteratively computes step-bounded state reachability probabilities. By contrast, recent advances in…
This paper addresses a key limitation in existing counterfactual inference methods for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Current approaches assume a specific causal model to make counterfactuals identifiable. However, there are usually many…
This study introduces a novel approach for learning mixtures of Markov chains, a critical process applicable to various fields, including healthcare and the analysis of web users. Existing research has identified a clear divide in…
The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for testing general hypothesis in a Markovian setting with random sampling. A discrete Markov chain X is observed at random time intervals $\tau$ k, assumed to be iid with unknown…
Since 1997 a considerable effort has been spent to study the mixing time of switch Markov chains on the realizations of graphic degree sequences of simple graphs. Several results were proved on rapidly mixing Markov chains on unconstrained,…
Counting and uniform sampling of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from a Markov equivalence class are fundamental tasks in graphical causal analysis. In this paper, we show that these tasks can be performed in polynomial time, solving a…
Random walks (or Markov chains) are models extensively used in theoretical computer science. Several tools, including analysis of quantities such as hitting and mixing times, are helpful for devising randomized algorithms. A notable example…
Solving fastest mixing Markov chain problem (i.e. finding transition probabilities on the edges to minimize the second largest eigenvalue modulus of the transition probability matrix) over networks with different topologies is one of the…
Computing the probability of reaching a set of goal states G in a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) is a core task of probabilistic model checking. We can do so by directly computing the probability mass of the set of all finite paths from…
We introduce and demonstrate a new approach to inference in expressive probabilistic programming languages based on particle Markov chain Monte Carlo. Our approach is simple to implement and easy to parallelize. It applies to…