Related papers: Rare-event Probability Estimation via Empirical Li…
The Expectation Maximisation (EM) algorithm is widely used to optimise non-convex likelihood functions with latent variables. Many authors modified its simple design to fit more specific situations. For instance, the Expectation (E) step…
The optimality and sensitivity of the empirical risk minimization problem with relative entropy regularization (ERM-RER) are investigated for the case in which the reference is a sigma-finite measure instead of a probability measure. This…
Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is widely used in statistics. The h-likelihood has been proposed as an extension of Fisher's likelihood to statistical models including unobserved latent variables of recent interest. Its advantage is that…
Very often when studying non-equilibrium systems one is interested in analysing dynamical behaviour that occurs with very low probability, so called rare events. In practice, since rare events are by definition atypical, they are often…
The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm and its variants are widely used in statistics. In high-dimensional mixture linear regression, the model is assumed to be a finite mixture of linear regression and the number of predictors is much…
The empirical risk minimization (ERM) problem with relative entropy regularization (ERM-RER) is investigated under the assumption that the reference measure is a $\sigma$-finite measure, and not necessarily a probability measure. Under this…
We introduce estimation and test procedures through divergence minimiza- tion for models satisfying linear constraints with unknown parameter. These procedures extend the empirical likelihood (EL) method and share common features with…
Recent advances in extreme value theory have established $\ell$-Pareto processes as the natural limits for extreme events defined in terms of exceedances of a risk functional. Here we provide methods for the practical modelling of data…
Abundance estimation from capture-recapture data is of great importance in many disciplines. Analysis of capture-recapture data is often complicated by the existence of one-inflation and heterogeneity problems. Simultaneously taking these…
The density ratio model (DRM) provides a flexible and useful platform for combining information from multiple sources. In this paper, we consider statistical inference under two-sample DRMs with additional parameters defined through and/or…
This paper develops a unified estimation framework, the Maximum Ideal Likelihood Estimation (MILE), for general parametric models with latent variables. Unlike traditional approaches relying on the marginal likelihood of the observed data,…
Reinforcement learning is the method of choice to train models in sampling-based setups with binary outcome feedback, such as navigation, code generation, and mathematical problem solving. In such settings, models implicitly induce a…
We present an algorithm for finding the probabilities of rare events in nonequilibrium processes. The algorithm consists of evolving the system with a modified dynamics for which the required event occurs more frequently. By keeping track…
Maximum likelihood estimation is a common method of estimating the parameters of the probability distribution from a given sample. This paper aims to introduce the maximum likelihood estimation in the framework of sublinear expectation. We…
In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential…
We develop a family of accelerated stochastic algorithms that minimize sums of convex functions. Our algorithms improve upon the fastest running time for empirical risk minimization (ERM), and in particular linear least-squares regression,…
This work combines multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) with importance sampling to estimate rare-event quantities that can be expressed as the expectation of a Lipschitz observable of the solution to a broad class of McKean--Vlasov stochastic…
The Plackett-Luce (PL) model is ubiquitous in learning-to-rank (LTR) because it provides a useful and intuitive probabilistic model for sampling ranked lists. Counterfactual offline evaluation and optimization of ranking metrics are pivotal…
In a number of applications, particularly in financial and actuarial mathematics, it is of interest to characterize the tail distribution of a random variable $V$ satisfying the distributional equation $V\stackrel{\mathcal{D}}{=}f(V)$,…
In this paper, we introduce a new algorithm for rare event estimation based on adaptive importance sampling. We consider a smoothed version of the optimal importance sampling density, which is approximated by an ensemble of interacting…