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Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-16 Yufei Cui , Wuguannan Yao , Qiao Li , Antoni B. Chan , Chun Jason Xue

In this paper I show how path integral techniques can be used to put measures on histories in "susceptible-infectious-recovered" (SIR)-type systems. The standard SIR solution emerges as the classical saddle point of the action describing…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-03 Steven Gratton

The Bayesian perspective on inverse problems has attracted much mathematical attention in recent years. Particular attention has been paid to Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs) in which the parameter to be inferred lies in an…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-10-17 T. J. Sullivan

Geoscientists often solve inverse problems to estimate values of parameters of interest given relevant data sets. Bayesian inference solves these problems by combining probability distributions that describe uncertainties in both…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-04-30 Xuebin Zhao , Andrew Curtis , Klaus Mosegaard

Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…

The inverse Ising problem consists in inferring the coupling constants of an Ising model given the correlation matrix. The fastest methods for solving this problem are based on mean-field approximations, but which one performs better in the…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2012-08-28 Federico Ricci-Tersenghi

Bayesian methods are actively used for parameter identification and uncertainty quantification when solving nonlinear inverse problems with random noise. However, there are only few theoretical results justifying the Bayesian approach.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Vladimir Spokoiny

Performing Bayesian inference on large spatio-temporal models requires extracting inverse elements of large sparse precision matrices for marginal variances, as well as estimating model hyperparameters. Although direct matrix factorizations…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-17 Abylay Zhumekenov , Elias T. Krainski , Håvard Rue

Bayesian inverse problems use data to update a prior probability distribution on uncertain parameter values to a posterior distribution. Such problems arise in many structural engineering applications, but computational solution of Bayesian…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-26 Jakob Scheffels , Elizabeth Qian , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

Parametric Bayesian modeling offers a powerful and flexible toolbox for machine learning. Yet the model, however detailed, may still be wrong, and this can make inferences untrustworthy. In this paper we introduce a new class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Bohan Wu , Eli N. Weinstein , Sohrab Salehi , Yixin Wang , David M. Blei

Bayesian methods are useful for statistical inference. However, real-world problems can be challenging using Bayesian methods when the data analyst has only limited prior knowledge. In this paper we consider a class of problems, called…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-20 Yixuan Qiu , Lingsong Zhang , Chuanhai Liu

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods form one of the algorithmic foundations of Bayesian inverse problems. The recent development of likelihood-informed subspace (LIS) methods offers a viable route to designing efficient MCMC methods for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-03-07 Tiangang Cui , Xin Tong , Olivier Zahm

Neural networks have emerged as effective tools for solving ill-posed inverse problems. In many scientific applications, however, observational training data are insufficient, and learned inverse operators must instead be trained on…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-26 Sandra R. Babyale , Jodi Mead

Bayesian inference provides a systematic framework for integration of data with mathematical models to quantify the uncertainty in the solution of the inverse problem. However, the solution of Bayesian inverse problems governed by complex…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-01-02 Ki-Tae Kim , Umberto Villa , Matthew Parno , Youssef Marzouk , Omar Ghattas , Noemi Petra

In this paper, first a great number of inverse problems which arise in instrumentation, in computer imaging systems and in computer vision are presented. Then a common general forward modeling for them is given and the corresponding…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Ali Mohammad-Djafari

We present a Bayesian methodology for infinite as well as finite dimensional parameter identification for partial differential equation models. The Bayesian framework provides a rigorous mathematical framework for incorporating prior…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2016-05-17 Eduard Campillo-Funollet , Chandrasekhar Venkataraman , Anotida Madzvamuse

In a Bayesian inverse problem setting, the solution consists of a posterior measure obtained by combining prior belief, information about the forward operator, and noisy observational data. This measure is most often given in terms of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-12 Philipp Wacker

The Bayesian approach to solving inverse problems relies on the choice of a prior. This critical ingredient allows the formulation of expert knowledge or physical constraints in a probabilistic fashion and plays an important role for the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-08 Manuel Marschall , Gerd Wübbeler , Franko Schmähling , Clemens Elster

We study empirical and hierarchical Bayes approaches to the problem of estimating an infinite-dimensional parameter in mildly ill-posed inverse problems. We consider a class of prior distributions indexed by a hyperparameter that quantifies…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-30 B. T. Knapik , B. T. Szabó , A. W. van der Vaart , J. H. van Zanten

Machine learning methods for computational imaging require uncertainty estimation to be reliable in real settings. While Bayesian models offer a computationally tractable way of recovering uncertainty, they need large data volumes to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-24 Francesco Tonolini , Jack Radford , Alex Turpin , Daniele Faccio , Roderick Murray-Smith
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