Related papers: Fiscal shocks and asymmetric effects: a comparativ…
Vector autoregression is an essential tool in empirical macroeconomics and finance for understanding the dynamic interdependencies among multivariate time series. In this study, we expand the scope of vector autoregression by incorporating…
The price impact for a single trade is estimated by the immediate response on an event time scale, i.e., the immediate change of midpoint prices before and after a trade. We work out the price impacts across a correlated financial market.…
This study examines the effects of Trump-era tariffs on financial market efficiency by applying multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis to the return and absolute return time series of six major financial assets: the S\&P 500, SSEC,…
The Lucas critique has exposed the problem of the trade-off between changes in monetary policy and structural breaks in economic time series. The search for and characterisation of such breaks has been a major econometric task ever since.…
Extreme political shocks may reshape economies not only through contemporaneous disruption but by altering beliefs about the distribution of future states. We study how such belief ruptures affect the cost of capital, expectations, and…
This article proposes a novel framework that integrates Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) into a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model to forecast macro-financial variables and examine asymmetries in the transmission…
In this paper we contrast the dynamics of the 2022 Ukraine invasion financial crisis with notable financial crises of the 21st century - the dot-com bubble, global financial crisis and COVID-19. We study the similarity in market dynamics…
We explore the international transmission of monetary policy and central bank information shocks originating from the United States and the euro area. Employing a panel vector autoregression, we use macroeconomic and financial variables…
Many financial and economic variables, including financial returns, exhibit nonlinear dependence, heterogeneity and heavy-tailedness. These properties may make problematic the analysis of (non-)efficiency and volatility clustering in…
Motivated by the Basel 3 regulations, recent studies have considered joint forecasts of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. A large family of scoring functions can be used to evaluate forecast performance in this context. However, little…
To estimate the reaction of economies to political interventions or external disturbances, input-output (IO) tables -- constructed by aggregating data into industrial sectors -- are extensively used. However, economic growth, robustness,…
Financial data are as a rule asymmetric, although most econometric models are symmetric. This applies also to continuous-time models for high-frequency and irregularly spaced data. We discuss some asymmetric versions of the continuous-time…
We study decades-long historic distributions of accumulated S\&P500 returns, from daily returns to those over several weeks. The time series of the returns emphasize major upheavals in the markets -- Black Monday, Tech Bubble, Financial…
We present a novel methodology to quantify the "impact" of and "response" to market shocks. We apply shocks to a group of stocks in a part of the market, and we quantify the effects in terms of average losses on another part of the market…
We provide a comparative study of several widely used off-policy estimators (Empirical Average, Basic Importance Sampling and Normalized Importance Sampling), detailing the different regimes where they are individually suboptimal. We then…
Inverse statistics in economics is considered. We argue that the natural candidate for such statistics is the investment horizons distribution. This distribution of waiting times needed to achieve a predefined level of return is obtained…
We show that structural smooth transition vector autoregressive models are statistically identified if the shocks are mutually independent and at most one of them is Gaussian. This extends a known identification result for linear structural…
I present a structural empirical model of a one-sided one-to-many matching with complementarities to quantify the effect of subsidy design on endogenous merger matching. I investigate shipping mergers and consolidations in Japan in 1964. At…
Growth rate of real GDP per capita, GDPpc, is represented as a sum of two components, a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to population change. The economic trend is modelled by an inverse function of GDPpc…
We investigate properties of non-translation-invariant measures, describing particle systems on $\bbz$, which are asymptotic to different translation invariant measures on the left and on the right. Often the structure of the transition…