Related papers: Modeling of Contact Tracing in Epidemic Population…
This paper is devoted to the study of an age-structured SIRS epidemic model, in which a population affected by a disease is divided into susceptible, infected, and removed individuals. We assume that the force of infection may be nonlinear…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
Age-dependent dynamics is an important characteristic of many infectious diseases. Age-group epidemic models describe the infection dynamics in different age-groups by allowing to set distinct parameter values for each. However, such models…
Contact tracing is one of the most important control measures deployed during epidemics. Relying on the identification of contacts of known infected individuals, it necessitates a network perspective. Although pairwise models have been used…
In most models of the spread of disease over contact networks it is assumed that the probabilities per unit time of disease transmission and recovery from disease are constant, implying exponential distributions of the time intervals for…
In this paper we study a diffusive age structured epidemic model with disease transmission between vector and host populations. The dynamics of the populations are described by reaction-diffusion equations, with infection age structure of…
A generalization of the standard susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) stochastic model for epidemics in sparse random networks is introduced which incorporates contact tracing in addition to random screening. We propose a deterministic…
In this article, we investigate the importance of demographic and contact patterns in determining the spread of COVID-19 and to the effectiveness of social distancing policies. We investigate these questions proposing an augmented…
We study a class of individual-based, fixed-population size epidemic models under general assumptions, e.g., heterogeneous contact rates encapsulating changes in behavior and/or enforcement of control measures. We show that the…
Social contact matrices are essential tools in infectious disease epidemiology as they quantify close-range human contact patterns which directly drive the transmission of airborne infectious diseases. In this work we propose a Bayesian…
The last decade saw the advent of increasingly realistic epidemic models that leverage on the availability of highly detailed census and human mobility data. Data-driven models aim at a granularity down to the level of households or single…
The importance of modeling the spread of epidemics through a population has led to the development of mathematical models for infectious disease propagation. A number of empirical studies have collected and analyzed data on contacts between…
Social contact studies, investigating social contact patterns in a population sample, have been an important contribution for epidemic models to better fit real life epidemics. A contact matrix $M$, having the \emph{mean} number of contacts…
We introduce a mathematical description of the impact of sociality in the spread of infectious diseases by integrating an epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic modeling of population-based contacts. The kinetic description leads to study…
A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.…
Understanding how age-specific social contact patterns and susceptibility influence infectious disease transmission is crucial for accurate epidemic modeling. This study presents an eigenvector-based sensitivity analysis framework to…
In this work, the spread of a contagious disease on a society where the individuals may take precautions is modeled. The primary assumption is that the infected individuals transmit the infection to the susceptible members of the community…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…
A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…
Early, reliable detection of disease outbreaks is a critical problem today. This paper reports an investigation of the use of causal Bayesian networks to model spatio-temporal patterns of a non-contagious disease (respiratory anthrax…