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Neural Networks and Decision Trees: two popular techniques for supervised learning that are seemingly disconnected in their formulation and optimization method, have recently been combined in a single construct. The connection pivots on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Giuseppe Nuti , Lluís Antoni Jiménez Rugama , Kaspar Thommen

In this paper we develop the randomized Sharded Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (SBT) model. We introduce a randomization auxiliary variable and a sharding tree to decide partitioning of data, and fit each partition component to a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-02 Hengrui Luo , Matthew T. Pratola

In this chapter, we address the challenge of exploring the posterior distributions of Bayesian inverse problems with computationally intensive forward models. We consider various multivariate proposal distributions, and compare them with…

Computation · Statistics 2024-05-02 Mikkel B. Lykkegaard , Colin Fox , Dave Higdon , C. Shane Reese , J. David Moulton

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have become standard tools in statistics to sample from complex probability measures. Many available techniques rely on discrete-time reversible Markov chains whose transition kernels build up over the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-21 Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Sebastian J. Vollmer , Arnaud Doucet

We propose a very fast approximate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling framework that is applicable to a large class of sparse Bayesian inference problems, where the computational cost per iteration in several models is of order…

Computation · Statistics 2021-08-17 Yves Atchadé , Liwei Wang

High-throughput characterization often requires estimating parameters and model dimension from experimental data of limited quantity and quality. Such data may result in an ill-posed inverse problem, where multiple sets of parameters and…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-08 Abigail N. Poteshman , Jiwon Yun , Tim H. Taminiau , Giulia Galli

Prediction is a classic challenge in spatial statistics and the inclusion of spatial covariates can greatly improve predictive performance when incorporated into a model with latent spatial effects. It is desirable to develop flexible…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-24 Alex Ziyu Jiang , Jon Wakefield

Bayesian mixture models are widely applied for unsupervised learning and exploratory data analysis. Markov chain Monte Carlo based on Gibbs sampling and split-merge moves are widely used for inference in these models. However, both methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-06-03 Tue Herlau , Morten Mørup , Yee Whye Teh , Mikkel N. Schmidt

The posterior probability distribution for a set of model parameters encodes all that the data have to tell us in the context of a given model; it is the fundamental quantity for Bayesian parameter estimation. In order to infer the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-16 Rupert Allison , Joanna Dunkley

We present a novel prior for tree topology within Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) models. This approach quantifies the hypothetical loss in information and the loss due to complexity associated with choosing the wrong tree…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-30 F. Serafini , F. Leisen , C. Villa , K. Wilson

Accept-reject based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are the workhorse algorithm for Bayesian inference. These algorithms, like Metropolis-Hastings, require choosing a proposal distribution which is typically informed by the desired…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-21 Dwija Kakkad , Dootika Vats

The study of dependence between random variables under external influences is a challenging problem in multivariate analysis. We address this by proposing a novel semi-parametric approach for conditional copula models using Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-11 Tathagata Basu , Fabrizio Leisen , Cristiano Villa , Kevin Wilson

Bayesian max-margin models have shown superiority in various practical applications, such as text categorization, collaborative prediction, social network link prediction and crowdsourcing, and they conjoin the flexibility of Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-19 Wenbo Hu , Jun Zhu , Bo Zhang

We perform Bayesian optimization using a Gaussian process perspective on Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). Our BART Kernel (BARK) uses tree agreement to define a posterior over piecewise-constant functions, and we explore the space…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-09 Toby Boyne , Jose Pablo Folch , Robert M Lee , Behrang Shafei , Ruth Misener

Bayesian variable selection requires sampling from a posterior distribution that combines discrete model indicators with continuously varying parameters, a challenge often addressed through reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC).…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-01 Don van den Bergh , Merlise A. Clyde , Adrian E. Raftery , Maarten Marsman

Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) proposals that achieve reasonable acceptance rates and mixing are notoriously difficult to design in most applications. Inspired by recent advances in deep neural network-based normalizing…

Computation · Statistics 2023-02-28 Laurence Davies , Robert Salomone , Matthew Sutton , Christopher Drovandi

Bayes additive regression trees(BART) is a nonparametric regression model which has gained wide-spread popularity in recent years due to its flexibility and high accuracy of estimation. Soft BART,one variation of BART,improves both…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-24 Hao Ran , Yang Bai

The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is a widely recognised as an efficient method for sampling a specified posterior distribution. However, when the posterior is multi-modal, conventional MCMC algorithms either tend to become…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2014-08-19 Yi-Ming Hu , Martin Hendry , Ik Siong Heng

Bayesian inference often faces a trade-off between computational speed and sampling accuracy. We propose an adaptive workflow that integrates rapid amortized inference with gold-standard MCMC techniques to achieve a favorable combination of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Chengkun Li , Aki Vehtari , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Stefan T. Radev , Luigi Acerbi , Marvin Schmitt

In many longitudinal studies, the covariate and response are often intermittently observed at irregular, mismatched and subject-specific times. How to deal with such data when covariate and response are observed asynchronously is an often…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-27 Hao Ran , Yang Bai