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Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-18 Jiyuan Tan , Jose Blanchet , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Ground level Ozone is one of the six common air-pollutants on which the EPA has set national air quality standards. In order to capture the spatio-temporal trend of 1-hour and 8-hour average ozone concentration in the US, we develop a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-08 Priyam Das , Subhashis Ghosal

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-29 Jonathan Koh , Daniel Steinfeld , Olivia Martius

TRAPPIST-1e is a tidally locked rocky exoplanet orbiting the habitable zone of an M dwarf star. Upcoming observations are expected to reveal new rocky exoplanets and their atmospheres around M dwarf stars. To interpret these future…

Earth and Planetary Astrophysics · Physics 2024-11-06 Anand Bhongade , Daniel R Marsh , Felix Sainsbury-Martinez , Gregory J Cooke

Epidemiological models can not only be used to forecast the course of a pandemic like COVID-19, but also to propose and design non-pharmaceutical interventions such as school and work closing. In general, the design of optimal policies…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-04-06 Jan-Hendrik Niemann , Samuel Uram , Sarah Wolf , Nataša Djurdjevac Conrad , Martin Weiser

The controllability of advection-diffusion systems, subject to uncertain initial values and emission rates, is estimated, given sparse and error affected observations of prognostic state variables. In predictive geophysical model systems,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-03-24 Xueran Wu , Hendrik Elbern , Birgit Jacob

We propose reduced order methods as a suitable approach to face parametrized optimal control problems governed by partial differential equations, with applications in en- vironmental marine sciences and engineering. Environmental…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-08-08 Maria Strazzullo , Francesco Ballarin , Renzo Mosetti , Gianluigi Rozza

Climate change and the rapid growth of urban populations are intensifying environmental stresses within cities, making the behavior of urban atmospheric flows a critical factor in public health, energy use, and overall livability. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Nishant Kumar , Franck Kerhervé , Lionel Agostini , Laurent Cordier

The impact of wildfire smoke on air quality is a growing concern, contributing to air pollution through a complex mixture of chemical species with important implications for public health. While previous studies have primarily focused on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-10 Dafne Zorzetto , Jenna Landy , Corwin Zigler , Giovanni Parmigiani , Roberta De Vito

Extreme value analysis for time series is often based on the block maxima method, in particular for environmental applications. In the classical univariate case, the latter is based on fitting an extreme-value distribution to the sample of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-20 Axel Bücher , Erik Haufs

We introduce a variational algorithm to estimate the likelihood of a rare event within a nonequilibrium molecular dynamics simulation through the evaluation of an optimal control force. Optimization of a control force within a chosen basis…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-01-14 Avishek Das , David T. Limmer

Distributional regression aims at estimating the conditional distribution of a targetvariable given explanatory co-variates. It is a crucial tool for forecasting whena precise uncertainty quantification is required. A popular methodology…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-22 Clément Dombry , Ahmed Zaoui

Recent advancements in deep learning have led to the development of Foundation Models (FMs) for weather forecasting, yet their ability to predict extreme weather events remains limited. Existing approaches either focus on general weather…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-12 Hang Ni , Weijia Zhang , Hao Liu

Climate change is increasingly recognized as a driver of health-related outcomes, yet its impact on pharmaceutical demand remains largely understudied. As environmental conditions evolve and extreme weather events intensify, anticipating…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-19 Viviana Schisa , Matteo Farnè

A comprehensive statistical model is developed for vertical profiles of the horizontal wind and temperature throughout the troposphere based on several-years radiosonde measurements of strong winds. The profiles measured under quite…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2007-05-29 A. Virtser , I. Kupershmidt , Yu. M. Shtemler

Disturbances to the climate system, both natural and anthropogenic, have far reaching impacts that are not always easy to identify or quantify using traditional climate science analyses or causal modeling techniques. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Meredith G. L. Brown , Matt Peterson , Irina Tezaur , Kara Peterson , Diana Bull

Surface ozone pollution remains a persistent challenge in many metropolitan regions worldwide, as the nonlinear dependence of ozone formation on nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) complicates the design of effective…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-21 Sijie Zheng

Understanding the causal effects of air pollution exposures on social mobility is attracting increasing attention. At the same time, education is widely recognized as a key driver of social mobility. However, the causal pathways linking…

The societal impact of traffic is a long-standing and complex problem. We focus on the estimation of ozone production due to vehicular traffic. For this, we couple a system of conservation laws for vehicular traffic, an emission model, and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-10-27 Caterina Balzotti , Maya Briani , Barbara De Filippo , Benedetto Piccoli

Extreme value applications commonly employ regression techniques to capture cross-sectional heterogeneity or time-variation in the data. Estimation of the parameters of an extreme value regression model is notoriously challenging due to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-12 Debbie J. Dupuis , Sebastian Engelke , Luca Trapin
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