Related papers: Credit Portfolio Management in a Turning Rates Env…
The risk of a credit portfolio depends crucially on correlations between the probability of default (PD) in different economic sectors. Often, PD correlations have to be estimated from relatively short time series of default rates, and the…
The instability of historical risk factor correlations renders their use in estimating portfolio risk extremely questionable. In periods of market stress correlations of risk factors have a tendency to quickly go well beyond estimated…
The notion of a credit spread curve is fundamental in fixed income investing, but in practice it is not `given' and needs to be constructed from bond prices either for a particular issuer, or for a sector rating-by-rating. Rather than…
We set up a structural model to study credit risk for a portfolio containing several or many credit contracts. The model is based on a jump--diffusion process for the risk factors, i.e. for the company assets. We also include correlations…
This paper analyzes the hypothesis that returns play a risk-compensating role in the market for corporate revolving lines of credit. Specifically, we test whether borrower risk and the expected return on these debt instruments are…
The stability of the financial system is associated with systemic risk factors such as the concurrent default of numerous small obligors. Hence it is of utmost importance to study the mutual dependence of losses for different creditors in…
We review recent progress in modeling credit risk for correlated assets. We start from the Merton model which default events and losses are derived from the asset values at maturity. To estimate the time development of the asset values, the…
In fixed income sector, the yield curve is probably the most observed indicator by the market for trading and fifinancing purposes. A yield curve plots interest rates across different contract maturities from short end to as long as 30…
We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations…
We study U.S. Treasury yield curve forecasting under distributional uncertainty and recast forecasting as an operations research and managerial decision problem. Rather than minimizing average forecast error, the forecaster selects a…
We propose a hybrid model of portfolio credit risk where the dynamics of the underlying latent variables is governed by a one factor GARCH process. The distinctive feature of such processes is that the long-term aggregate return…
Interest-rate risk is a key factor for property-casualty insurer capital. P&C companies tend to be highly leveraged, with bond holdings much greater than capital. For GAAP capital, bonds are marked to market but liabilities are not, so…
If the probability of default parameters (PDs) fed as input into a credit portfolio model are estimated as through-the-cycle (TTC) PDs stressed market conditions have little impact on the results of the capital calculations conducted with…
This paper investigates the impact of monetary policy surprises on U.S. Treasury bond yields and the implications for portfolio managers. Based on the supply and demand model, traditional economic theories suggest that Federal Reserve bond…
This study presents an analytical approach to sector rotation, leveraging both factor models and fundamental metrics. We initiate with a systematic classification of sectors, followed by an empirical investigation into their returns.…
Credit risk rating is shown to be a relevant determinant in order to estimate good corporate governance and to self-optimize capital structure. The conclusion is argued from a study on a selected (and justified) sample of (182) companies…
The instability of the financial system as experienced in recent years and in previous periods is often linked to credit defaults, i.e., to the failure of obligors to make promised payments. Given the large number of credit contracts, this…
We present a detailed analysis of interest rate derivatives valuation under credit risk and collateral modeling. We show how the credit and collateral extended valuation framework in Pallavicini et al (2011), and the related collateralized…
In this three-part series of papers, we argue that the conventional spread measures are not well defined for credit-risky bonds and introduce a set of credit term structures which correct for the biases associated with the strippable cash…
Macroeconomic factors have a critical impact on banking credit risk, which cannot be directly controlled by banks, and therefore, there is a need for an early credit risk warning system based on the macroeconomy. By comparing different…