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How can researchers identify beliefs that large language models (LLMs) hide? As LLMs become more sophisticated and the prevalence of alignment faking increases, combined with their growing integration into high-stakes decision-making,…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Maxim Chupilkin

Survey researchers face the problem of sensitivity bias: since people are reluctant to reveal socially undesirable or otherwise risky traits, aggregate estimates of these traits will be biased. List experiments offer a solution by…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-27 Sophia Hatz , David Randahl

Composite likelihood inference has gained much popularity thanks to its computational manageability and its theoretical properties. Unfortunately, performing composite likelihood ratio tests is inconvenient because of their awkward…

Computation · Statistics 2014-08-01 Manuela Cattelan , Nicola Sartori

Unobserved confounders are a long-standing issue in causal inference using propensity score methods. This study proposed nonparametric indices to quantify the impact of unobserved confounders through pseudo-experiments with an application…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-27 Beilin Jia , Donglin Zeng , Qing Yang , Wei Pan

In observational studies, contingency tables provide a simple and intuitive approach to study associations between categorical variables. However, any test of association in contingency tables may be biased due to unmeasured confounders.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-10 Elaine K. Chiu , Hyunseung Kang

We study user sentiment (reported via optional surveys) as a metric for fully randomized A/B tests. Both user-level covariates and treatment assignment can impact response propensity. We propose a set of consistent estimators for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-27 Ercan Yildiz , Joshua Safyan , Marc Harper

In settings where interference between units is possible, we define the prevalence of indirect effects to be the number of units who are affected by the treatment of others. This quantity does not fully identify an indirect effect, but may…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-18 David Choi

Indirect experiments provide a valuable framework for estimating treatment effects in situations where conducting randomized control trials (RCTs) is impractical or unethical. Unlike RCTs, indirect experiments estimate treatment effects by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-06 Yash Chandak , Shiv Shankar , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Emma Brunskill

Recovering and distinguishing between the strict-preference, indifference and/or indecisiveness parts of a decision maker's preferences is a challenging task but also important for testing theory and conducting welfare analysis. This paper…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-09-15 Georgios Gerasimou

This paper considers the problem of multi-sample nonparametric comparison of counting processes with panel count data, which arise naturally when recurrent events are considered. Such data frequently occur in medical follow-up studies and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-04-21 N. Balakrishnan , Xingqiu Zhao

The Extended Crosswise Model is a popular randomized response design that employs a sensitive and a randomized innocuous statement, and asks respondents if one of these statements is true, or that none or both are true. The model has a…

We consider the problem of combining data from observational and experimental sources to make causal conclusions. This problem is increasingly relevant, as the modern era has yielded passive collection of massive observational datasets in…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-19 Evan Rosenman , Guillaume Basse , Art Owen , Michael Baiocchi

The popularity of online surveys has increased the prominence of using weights that capture units' probabilities of inclusion for claims of representativeness. Yet, much uncertainty remains regarding how these weights should be employed in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-08-16 Luke W. Miratrix , Jasjeet S. Sekhon , Alexander G. Theodoridis , Luis F. Campos

In this article we present very intuitive, easy to follow, yet mathematically rigorous, approach to the so called data fitting process. Rather than minimizing the distance between measured and simulated data points, we prefer to find such…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-08-07 Marek W. Gutowski

The goal of this paper is to provide some tools for nonparametric estimation and inference in psychological and economic experiments. We consider an experimental framework in which each of $n$subjects provides $T$ responses to a vector of…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-12-10 Raffaello Seri , Samuele Centorrino , Michele Bernasconi

The crosswise model is an increasingly popular survey technique to elicit candid answers from respondents on sensitive questions. Recent studies, however, point out that in the presence of inattentive respondents, the conventional estimator…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-21 Yuki Atsusaka , Randolph T. Stevenson

The topic of this paper is prevalence estimation from the perspective of active information. Prevalence among tested individuals has an upward bias under the assumption that individuals' willingness to be tested for the disease increases…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-13 Ola Hössjer , Daniel Andrés Díaz-Pachón , Chen Zhao , J. Sunil Rao

With nonignorable nonresponse, an effective method to construct valid estimators of population parameters is to use a covariate vector called instrument that can be excluded from the nonresponse propensity but are still useful covariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Ji Chen , Jun Shao

We observe a random measure $N$ and aim at estimating its intensity $s$. This statistical framework allows to deal simultaneously with the problems of estimating a density, the marginals of a multivariate distribution, the mean of a random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-05-12 Yannick Baraud

Randomized controlled trials generate experimental variation that can credibly identify causal effects, but often suffer from limited scale, while observational datasets are large, but often violate desired identification assumptions. To…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-27 George Z. Gui
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