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Extreme events arising in georeferenced processes can take various forms, such as occurring in isolated patches or stretching contiguously over large areas, and can further vary with the spatial location and the extremeness of the events.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-15 Ryan Cotsakis , Elena Di Bernardino , Thomas Opitz

The majority of real-world processes are spatiotemporal, and the data generated by them exhibits both spatial and temporal evolution. Weather is one of the most essential processes in this domain, and weather forecasting has become a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-24 Shakir Showkat Sofi , Ivan Oseledets

Spatial confounding poses a significant challenge in scientific studies involving spatial data, where unobserved spatial variables can influence both treatment and outcome, possibly leading to spurious associations. To address this problem,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-04 Mauricio Tec , Ana Trisovic , Michelle Audirac , Sophie Woodward , Jie Kate Hu , Naeem Khoshnevis , Francesca Dominici

Confidence region prediction is a practically useful extension to the commonly studied pattern recognition problem. Instead of predicting a single label, the constraint is relaxed to allow prediction of a subset of labels given a desired…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-27 David Lindsay , Sian Lindsay

In environmental science applications, extreme events frequently exhibit a complex spatio-temporal structure, which is difficult to describe flexibly and estimate in a computationally efficient way using state-of-art parametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-22 Marco Oesting , Raphaël Huser

There is increasing evidence that global warming manifests itself in more frequent warm days and that heat waves will become more frequent. Presently, a formal definition of a heat wave is not agreed upon in the literature. To avoid this…

One way to warn of forthcoming critical transitions in Earth system components is using observations to detect declining system stability. It has also been suggested to extrapolate such stability changes into the future and predict tipping…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-08-14 Maya Ben-Yami , Andreas Morr , Sebastian Bathiany , Niklas Boers

The trust region method is an algorithm traditionally used in the field of derivative free optimization. The method works by iteratively constructing surrogate models (often linear or quadratic functions) to approximate the true objective…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-06-12 Ky Vu , Pierre-Louis Poirion , Claudia D'Ambrosio , Leo Liberti

Recent extreme value theory literature has seen significant emphasis on the modelling of spatial extremes, with comparatively little consideration of spatio-temporal extensions. This neglects an important feature of extreme events: their…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-19 Emma S. Simpson , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

Predictive modelling using machine learning has become very popular for spatial mapping of the environment. Models are often applied to make predictions far beyond sampling locations where new geographic locations might considerably differ…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-08-20 Hanna Meyer , Edzer Pebesma

Understanding and mapping extreme heat is critical for risk management and public health planning, particularly in regions with complex terrain and heterogeneous climate. We present a case study of extreme heat in the Four Corners region of…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-22 Ben Seiyon Lee , Reetam Majumder , Jordan Richards , Emma S. Simpson , Likun Zhang

The estimation of covariance operators of spatio-temporal data is in many applications only computationally feasible under simplifying assumptions, such as separability of the covariance into strictly temporal and spatial factors.Powerful…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-30 Holger Dette , Gauthier Dierickx , Tim Kutta

We introduce the extremal range, a local statistic for studying the spatial extent of extreme events in random fields on $\mathbb{R}^d$. Conditioned on exceedance of a high threshold at a location $s$, the extremal range at $s$ is the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-06 Ryan Cotsakis , Elena Di Bernardino , Thomas Opitz

Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-10-25 Subhankar Ghosh , Shuai An , Arun Sharma , Jayant Gupta , Shashi Shekhar , Aneesh Subramanian

Thermal comfort is essential for well-being in urban spaces, especially as cities face increasing heat from urbanization and climate change. Existing thermal comfort models usually overlook temporal dynamics alongside spatial dependencies.…

Applications · Statistics 2024-11-19 Federico P. Cortese , Antonio Pievatolo

Statistical models used to estimate the spatio-temporal pattern in disease risk from areal unit data represent the risk surface for each time period with known covariates and a set of spatially smooth random effects. The latter act as a…

Applications · Statistics 2016-04-19 Alastair Rushworth , Duncan Lee , Christophe Sarran

Deep learning methods achieve remarkable predictive performance in modeling complex, large-scale data. However, assessing the quality of derived models has become increasingly challenging, as more classical statistical assumptions may no…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-02 Daniele Zambon , Cesare Alippi

The risk of extreme environmental events is of great importance for both the authorities and the insurance industry. This paper concerns risk measures in a spatial setting, in order to introduce the spatial features of damages stemming from…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-12 Erwan Koch

Spatial and spatiotemporal volatility models are a class of models designed to capture spatial dependence in the volatility of spatial and spatiotemporal data. Spatial dependence in the volatility may arise due to spatial spillovers among…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-28 Philipp Otto , Osman Doğan , Süleyman Taşpınar , Wolfgang Schmid , Anil K. Bera

Significant wave height forecasting is a key problem in ocean data analytics. This task affects several maritime operations, such as managing the passage of vessels or estimating the energy production from waves. In this work, we focus on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-07 Vitor Cerqueira , Luis Torgo