Related papers: Filters and smoothers for self-exciting Markov mod…
We study the celebrated Shiryaev-Wonham filter (1964) in its historical setup where the hidden Markov jump process has two states. We are interested in the weak noise regime for the observation equation. Interestingly, this becomes a strong…
In this paper we present elementary computations for some Markov modulated counting processes, also called counting processes with regime switching. Regime switching has become an increasingly popular concept in many branches of science. In…
Filtering is concerned with the sequential estimation of the state, and uncertainties, of a Markovian system, given noisy observations. It is particularly difficult to achieve accurate filtering in complex dynamical systems, such as those…
Exact inference for hidden Markov models requires the evaluation of all distributions of interest - filtering, prediction, smoothing and likelihood - with a finite computational effort. This article provides sufficient conditions for exact…
Jump Markov linear models consists of a finite number of linear state space models and a discrete variable encoding the jumps (or switches) between the different linear models. Identifying jump Markov linear models makes for a challenging…
The Markov-modulated Poisson process is utilised for count modelling in a variety of areas such as queueing, reliability, network and insurance claims analysis. In this paper, we extend the Markov-modulated Poisson process framework through…
We study finite horizon optimal switching problems for hidden Markov chain models under partially observable Poisson processes. The controller possesses a finite range of strategies and attempts to track the state of the unobserved state…
In this paper we study various properties of finite stochastic systems or hidden Markov chains as they are alternatively called. We discuss their construction following different approaches and we also derive recursive filtering formulas…
This work focuses on a self-exciting point process defined by a Hawkes-like intensity and a switching mechanism based on a hidden Markov chain. Previous works in such a setting assume constant intensities between consecutive events. We…
In state space models, smoothing refers to the task of estimating a latent stochastic process given noisy measurements related to the process. We propose an unbiased estimator of smoothing expectations. The lack-of-bias property has…
This paper presents a method for calculating the smoothed state distribution for Jump Markov Linear Systems. More specifically, the paper details a novel two-filter smoother that provides closed-form expressions for the smoothed hybrid…
Motivated by applications arising in networked systems, this work examines controlled regime-switching systems that stem from a mean-variance formulation. A main point is that the switching process is a hidden Markov chain. An additional…
We consider the filtering of continuous-time finite-state hidden Markov models, where the rate and observation matrices depend on unknown time-dependent parameters, for which no prior or stochastic model is available. We quantify and…
We present a new algorithm for the statistical model checking of Markov chains with respect to unbounded temporal properties, such as reachability and full linear temporal logic. The main idea is that we monitor each simulation run on the…
A decision maker records measurements of a finite-state Markov chain corrupted by noise. The goal is to decide when the Markov chain hits a specific target state. The decision maker can choose from a finite set of sampling intervals to pick…
We use Markov categories to generalize the basic theory of Markov chains and hidden Markov models to an abstract setting. This comprises characterizations of hidden Markov models in terms of conditional independences and algorithms for…
Let X be a continuous-time Markov chain in a finite set I, let h be a mapping of I onto another set, and let Y be defined by Y_t=h(X_t), (for t nonnegative). We address the filtering problem for X in terms of the observation Y, which is not…
A novel solution to the smoothing problem for multi-object dynamical systems is proposed and evaluated. The systems of interest contain an unknown and varying number of dynamical objects that are partially observed under noisy and corrupted…
We consider estimating the transition probability matrix of a finite-state finite-observation alphabet hidden Markov model with known observation probabilities. The main contribution is a two-step algorithm; a method of moments estimator…
We consider the approximation of expectations with respect to the distribution of a latent Markov process given noisy measurements. This is known as the smoothing problem and is often approached with particle and Markov chain Monte Carlo…