Related papers: Mixed mode oscillations in a conceptual climate mo…
We study a class of multi-parameter three-dimensional systems of ordinary differential equations that exhibit dynamics on three distinct timescales. We apply geometric singular perturbation theory to explore the dependence of the geometry…
Anticipating critical transitions in the Earth system is of great societal relevance, yet there may be intrinsic limitations to their predictability. For instance, from the theory of dynamical systems possessing multiple chaotic attractors,…
The investigation of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system is not only scientifically challenging but also practically important. We consider a coupled atmosphere-ocean model, which involves hydrodynamics, thermodynamics, and random…
We propose a conceptual model which generates abrupt climate changes akin to Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In the model these abrupt climate changes are not triggered by external perturbations but rather emerge in a dynamic self-consistent…
The threat of global warming and the demand for reliable climate predictions pose a formidable challenge being the climate system multiscale, high-dimensional and nonlinear. Spatiotemporal recurrences of the system hint to the presence of a…
Complex Earth System Models are widely utilised to make conditional statements about the future climate under some assumptions about changes in future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations; these statements are often referred to as…
Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events) to a few simple principles, namely (i) a threshold…
The physics of critical phenomena in a many-body system far from thermal equilibrium is an interesting and important issue to be addressed both experimentally and theoretically. The trapped cold atoms have been actively used as a clean and…
Climate and weather prediction traditionally relies on complex numerical simulations of atmospheric physics. Deep learning approaches, such as transformers, have recently challenged the simulation paradigm with complex network forecasts.…
We study the onset of collective oscillations at low temperature in a three-dimensional spin model with non-reciprocal short-range interactions. Performing numerical simulations of the model, the presence of a continuous phase transition to…
Rapid changes in Earth's cryosphere caused by human activity can lead to significant environmental impacts. Computer models provide a useful tool for understanding the behavior and projecting the future of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets.…
Multistability is a phenomenon prevalent in many natural systems. In climate, for example, it allows the possibility of irreversible consequences on planetary scale as a result of climate change. Indeed, a climate ``tipping element'' is a…
Modern weather and climate models share a common heritage, and often even components, however they are used in different ways to answer fundamentally different questions. As such, attempts to emulate them using machine learning should…
Model reduction techniques have been widely used to study the collective behavior of globally coupled oscillators. However, most approaches assume that there are infinitely many oscillators. Here we propose a new ansatz, based on the…
How will the climate system respond to anthropogenic forcings? One approach to this question relies on climate model projections. Current climate projections are considerably uncertain. Characterizing and, if possible, reducing this…
In climate science, models for global warming and weather prediction face significant challenges due to the limited availability of high-quality data and the difficulty in obtaining it, making data efficiency crucial. In the past few years,…
Interaction between atmospheric mid-latitude flow and wind-driven ocean circulation is studied coupling two idealized low-order spectral models. The barotropic Charney-DeVore model with three components simulates a bimodal mid-latitude…
Homogeneous and isotropic models are studied in the Jordan frame of the second order gravity theory. The late time evolution of the models is analysed with the methods of the dynamical systems. The normal form of the dynamical system has…
We study the three-timescale dynamics of a model that describes the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which was proposed in [A. Roberts, J. Guckenheimer, E. Widiasih, A. Timmermann, and C. K. Jones, Mixed-mode oscillations…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the Earth's climate. Evidence indicates a twentieth-century weakening, and enhanced freshwater input to the subpolar North Atlantic may further reduce overturning…