Related papers: Parameter Estimation in Hidden Markov Models with …
We study sequential Bayesian inference in stochastic kinetic models with latent factors. Assuming continuous observation of all the reactions, our focus is on joint inference of the unknown reaction rates and the dynamic latent states,…
We introduce a multivariate stochastic volatility model for asset returns that imposes no restrictions to the structure of the volatility matrix and treats all its elements as functions of latent stochastic processes. When the number of…
In this paper we formulate the nonnegative matrix factorisation (NMF) problem as a maximum likelihood estimation problem for hidden Markov models and propose online expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithms to estimate the NMF and the other…
We consider discrete graphical models Markov with respect to a graph $G$ and propose two distributed marginal methods to estimate the maximum likelihood estimate of the canonical parameter of the model. Both methods are based on a…
Modern macroeconometrics often relies on time series models for which it is time-consuming to evaluate the likelihood function. We demonstrate how Bayesian computations for such models can be drastically accelerated by reweighting and…
We provide a simple method to estimate the parameters of multivariate stochastic volatility models with latent factor structures. These models are very useful as they alleviate the standard curse of dimensionality, allowing the number of…
We consider the problem of flexible modeling of higher order hidden Markov models when the number of latent states and the nature of the serial dependence, including the true order, are unknown. We propose Bayesian nonparametric methodology…
This article considers stochastic algorithms for efficiently solving a class of large scale non-linear least squares (NLS) problems which frequently arise in applications. We propose eight variants of a practical randomized algorithm where…
Stochastic volatility models are the backbone of financial engineering. We study both continuous time diffusions as well as discrete time models. We propose two novel approaches to estimating stochastic volatility diffusions, one using…
We present novel Monte Carlo (MC) and multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to determine the unbiased covariance of random variables using h-statistics. The advantage of this procedure lies in the unbiased construction of the estimator's…
We consider the problem of static Bayesian inference for partially observed Levy-process models. We develop a methodology which allows one to infer static parameters and some states of the process, without a bias from the…
The Linear Ballistic Accumulator (Brown & Heathcote, 2008) model is used as a measurement tool to answer questions about applied psychology. The analyses based on this model depend upon the model selected and its estimated parameters.…
This article addresses online variational estimation in parametric state-space models. We propose a new procedure for efficiently computing the evidence lower bound and its gradient in a streaming-data setting, where observations arrive…
This paper introduces a class of Monte Carlo algorithms which are based upon the simulation of a Markov process whose quasi-stationary distribution coincides with a distribution of interest. This differs fundamentally from, say, current…
The slow processes of metastable stochastic dynamical systems are difficult to access by direct numerical simulation due the sampling problem. Here, we suggest an approach for modeling the slow parts of Markov processes by approximating the…
Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…
We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal…
Many random processes can be simulated as the output of a deterministic model accepting random inputs. Such a model usually describes a complex mathematical or physical stochastic system and the randomness is introduced in the input…
We consider the problem of inferring a latent function in a probabilistic model of data. When dependencies of the latent function are specified by a Gaussian process and the data likelihood is complex, efficient computation often involve…
In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of…