Related papers: Skew and implied leverage effect: smile dynamics r…
We investigate the pricing of financial options under the 2-hypergeometric stochastic volatility model. This is an analytically tractable model that reproduces the volatility smile and skew effects observed in empirical market data. Using a…
Our derivation of the distribution function for future returns is based on the risk neutral approach which gives a functional dependence for the European call (put) option price, C(K), given the strike price, K, and the distribution…
We consider a class of assets whose risk-neutral pricing dynamics are described by an exponential L\'evy-type process subject to default. The class of processes we consider features locally-dependent drift, diffusion and default-intensity…
In [Precise Asymptotics for Robust Stochastic Volatility Models; Ann. Appl. Probab. 2021] we introduce a new methodology to analyze large classes of (classical and rough) stochastic volatility models, with special regard to short-time and…
First, we show that implied normal volatility is intimately linked with the incomplete Gamma function. Then, we deduce an expansion on implied normal volatility in terms of the time-value of a European call option. Then, we formulate an…
The main goal of this paper is an application of Bayesian inference in testing the relation between risk and return on the financial instruments. On the basis of the Intertemporal CAPM model we built a general sampling model suitable in…
There are some statistical anomalies in the Chinese stock market, i.e., positive return skewness, anti-leverage effect (positive returns induce higher volatility than negative returns); and reverse volatility asymmetry (contemporaneous…
We compute a sharp small-time estimate for implied volatility under a general uncorrelated local-stochastic volatility model. For this we use the Bellaiche \cite{Bel81} heat kernel expansion combined with Laplace's method to integrate over…
The recent empirical work of Amaya et al. (2015) has pointed out that the realized skewness, which is the sample skewness of intraday high-frequency returns of a financial asset, serves as forecasting future returns in the cross-section.…
Classical (It\^o diffusions) stochastic volatility models are not able to capture the steepness of small-maturity implied volatility smiles. Jumps, in particular exponential L\'evy and affine models, which exhibit small-maturity exploding…
The emergence of Big Data raises the question of how to model economic relations when there is a large number of possible explanatory variables. We revisit the issue by comparing the possibility of using dense or sparse models in a Bayesian…
In a recent article the authors obtained a formula which relates explicitly the tail of risk neutral returns with the wing behavior of the Black Scholes implied volatility smile. In situations where precise tail asymptotics are unknown but…
The rBergomi model under the physical measure consists of modeling the log-variance as a truncated Brownian semi-stationary process. Then, a deterministic change of measure is applied. The rBergomi model is able to reproduce observed market…
In this paper, we derive a general asymptotic implied volatility at the first-order for any stochastic volatility model using the heat kernel expansion on a Riemann manifold endowed with an Abelian connection. This formula is particularly…
In an incomplete market, including liquidly-traded European options in an investment portfolio could potentially improve the expected terminal utility for a risk-averse investor. However, unlike the Sharpe ratio, which provides a concise…
We characterize the behaviour of the Rough Heston model introduced by Jaisson\&Rosenbaum \cite{JR16} in the small-time, large-time and $\alpha \to 1/2$ (i.e. $H\to 0$) limits. We show that the short-maturity smile scales in qualitatively…
In this paper we investigate the asymptotics of forward-start options and the forward implied volatility smile in the Heston model as the maturity approaches zero. We prove that the forward smile for out-of-the-money options explodes and…
In this paper, we study the Black-Litterman (BL) asset allocation model (Black and Litterman, 1990) under the hidden truncation skew-normal distribution (Arnold and Beaver, 2000). In particular, when returns are assumed to follow this skew…
Earnings announcements (EADs) are corporate events that provide investors with fundamentally important information. The prospect of stock price rises may also contribute to EADs increased volatility. Using data on extremely short term…
We present extensive evidence that ``risk premium'' is strongly correlated with tail-risk skewness but very little with volatility. We introduce a new, intuitive definition of skewness and elicit an approximately linear relation between the…