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The notion that an independent central bank reduces a country's inflation is a controversial hypothesis. To date, it has not been possible to satisfactorily answer this question because the complex macroeconomic structure that gives rise to…
Performance analysis based on modelling consists of two major steps: model construction and model analysis. Formal modelling techniques significantly aid model construction but can exacerbate model analysis. In particular, here we consider…
Principal component analysis (PCA) is one of the most widely used dimensionality reduction methods in scientific data analysis. In many applications, for additional interpretability, it is desirable for the factor loadings to be sparse,…
Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the IMF as "the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions", is a key topic in macroprudential policy and financial stress analysis. Specialized models to simulate…
Factor models have been widely used in economics and finance. However, the heavy-tailed nature of macroeconomic and financial data is often neglected in the existing literature. To address this issue and achieve robustness, we propose an…
Principal component analysis (PCA) is recognised as a quintessential data analysis technique when it comes to describing linear relationships between the features of a dataset. However, the well-known sensitivity of PCA to non-Gaussian…
Financial networks are characterized by complex structures of mutual obligations. These obligations are fulfilled entirely or in part (when defaults occur) via a mechanism called clearing, which determines a set of payments that settle the…
We develop asymptotic theory for principal component analysis (PCA) of a high-dimensional factor model in which the working dimension $R$ is fixed and only required to satisfy $R \ge r$, where $r$ is the true number of factors. Building on…
The goal of diagnosis is to compute good repair strategies in response to anomalous system behavior. In a decision theoretic framework, a good repair strategy has low expected cost. In a general formulation of the problem, the computation…
We present a dialogue on Funding Costs and Counterparty Credit Risk modeling, inclusive of collateral, wrong way risk, gap risk and possible Central Clearing implementation through CCPs. This framework is important following the fact that…
We introduce a probabilistic framework that represents stylized banking networks with the aim of predicting the size of contagion events. Most previous work on random financial networks assumes independent connections between banks, whereas…
This article establishes a new and comprehensive estimation and inference theory for principal component analysis (PCA) under the weak factor model that allow for cross-sectional dependent idiosyncratic components under the nearly minimal…
Principal component analysis (PCA) is a widely used dimension reduction technique in machine learning and multivariate statistics. To improve the interpretability of PCA, various approaches to obtain sparse principal direction loadings have…
The aim of this paper is to quantify and manage systemic risk caused by default contagion in the interbank market. We model the market as a random directed network, where the vertices represent financial institutions and the weighted edges…
Principal component analysis (PCA) is a fundamental tool for analyzing multivariate data. Here the focus is on dimension reduction to the principal subspace, characterized by its projection matrix. The classical principal subspace can be…
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a cornerstone of dimensionality reduction, yet its classical formulation relies critically on second-order moments and is therefore fragile in the presence of heavy-tailed data and impulsive noise.…
In this paper we analyze approximate methods for undertaking a principal components analysis (PCA) on large data sets. PCA is a classical dimension reduction method that involves the projection of the data onto the subspace spanned by the…
The Local Computation Algorithms (LCA) model is a computational model aimed at problem instances with huge inputs and output. For graph problems, the input graph is accessed using probes: strong probes (SP) specify a vertex $v$ and receive…
A problem of optimal debt management is modeled as a noncooperative game between a borrower and a pool of lenders, in infinite time horizon with exponential discount. The yearly income of the borrower is governed by a stochastic process.…
Robust PCA is a widely used statistical procedure to recover a underlying low-rank matrix with grossly corrupted observations. This work considers the problem of robust PCA as a nonconvex optimization problem on the manifold of low-rank…