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Recent work has shown that models trained to the same objective, and which achieve similar measures of accuracy on consistent test data, may nonetheless behave very differently on individual predictions. This inconsistency is undesirable in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-17 Emily Black , Klas Leino , Matt Fredrikson

We observe a $n$-sample, the distribution of which is assumed to belong, or at least to be close enough, to a given mixture model. We propose an estimator of this distribution that belongs to our model and possesses some robustness…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-06 Alexandre Lecestre

Estimating how individual input variables affect the output of a black-box model is a central task in explainable machine learning. However, existing methods suffer from two key limitations: sensitivity to out-of-distribution (OOD)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-23 Chih-Yu Chang , Ming-Chung Chang

Incorporating the auxiliary information into the survey estimation is a fundamental problem in survey sampling. Calibration weighting is a popular tool for incorporating the auxiliary information. The calibration weighting method of Deville…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-13 Yonghyun Kwon , Jae Kwang Kim , Yumou Qiu

We develop a theoretical framework for the analysis of oblique decision trees, where the splits at each decision node occur at linear combinations of the covariates (as opposed to conventional tree constructions that force axis-aligned…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-09-01 Matias D. Cattaneo , Rajita Chandak , Jason M. Klusowski

Deep networks have gained immense popularity in Computer Vision and other fields in the past few years due to their remarkable performance on recognition/classification tasks surpassing the state-of-the art. One of the keys to their success…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-04 Rudrasis Chakraborty , Chun-Hao Yang , Baba C. Vemuri

With a growing interest in using non-representative samples to train prediction models for numerous outcomes it is necessary to account for the sampling design that gives rise to the data in order to assess the generalized predictive…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-17 Andrew Holbrook , Thomas Lumley , Daniel Gillen

This paper deals with estimation with functional covariates. More precisely, we aim at estimating the regression function $m$ of a continuous outcome $Y$ against a standard Wiener coprocess $W$. Following Cadre and Truquet (2015) and Cadre,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-23 Karine Bertin , Nicolas Klutchnikoff

Sparse estimation methods capable of tolerating outliers have been broadly investigated in the last decade. We contribute to this research considering high-dimensional regression problems contaminated by multiple mean-shift outliers which…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-21 Luca Insolia , Ana Kenney , Francesca Chiaromonte , Giovanni Felici

Ensemble models refer to methods that combine a typically large number of classifiers into a compound prediction. The output of an ensemble method is the result of fitting a base-learning algorithm to a given data set, and obtaining diverse…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-10 Waldyn Martinez

The paper introduces a new estimation method for the standard linear regression model. The procedure is not driven by the optimisation of any objective function rather, it is a simple weighted average of slopes from observation pairs. The…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-02-27 Felix Chan , Laszlo Matyas

There has been increasing interest in recent years in the development of approaches to estimate causal effects when the number of potential confounders is prohibitively large. This growth in interest has led to a number of potential…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-05 Joseph Antonelli , Matthew Cefalu

This paper deals with recovering an unknown vector $\theta$ from the noisy data $Y=A\theta+\sigma\xi$, where $A$ is a known $(m\times n)$-matrix and $\xi$ is a white Gaussian noise. It is assumed that $n$ is large and $A$ may be severely…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-11-11 Yuri Golubev

Predictive inference requires balancing statistical accuracy against informational complexity, yet the choice of complexity measure is usually imposed rather than derived. We treat econometric objects as predictive rules, mappings from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-16 Nicholas G. Polson , Daniel Zantedeschi

Bayesian experts who are exposed to different evidence often make contradictory probabilistic forecasts. An aggregator, ignorant of the underlying model, uses this to calculate her own forecast. We use the notions of scoring rules and…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2018-02-13 Itai Areili , Yakov Babichenko , Rann Smorodinsky

We prove global convergence of classical projection algorithms for feasibility problems involving union convex sets, which refer to sets expressible as the union of a finite number of closed convex sets. We present a unified strategy for…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-07-18 Jan Harold Alcantara , Ching-pei Lee

Estimators that weight observed outcomes to form effect estimates have a long tradition. Their outcome weights are widely used in established procedures, such as checking covariate balance, characterizing target populations, or detecting…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-13 Michael C. Knaus

Rule learning approaches for knowledge graph completion are efficient, interpretable and competitive to purely neural models. The rule aggregation problem is concerned with finding one plausibility score for a candidate fact which was…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-09-04 Patrick Betz , Stefan Lüdtke , Christian Meilicke , Heiner Stuckenschmidt

In this paper, we introduce a new learning strategy based on a seminal idea of Mojirsheibani (1999, 2000, 2002a, 2002b), who proposed a smart method for combining several classifiers, relying on a consensus notion. In many aggregation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-09 Aurélie Fischer , Mathilde Mougeot

Traditionally model averaging has been viewed as an alternative to model selection with the ultimate goal to incorporate the uncertainty associated with the model selection process in standard errors and confidence intervals by using a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-05 Michael Schomaker , Christian Heumann
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