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Stepped-wedge designs are increasingly used in randomized experiments to accommodate logistical and ethical constraints by staggering treatment roll-out over time. Despite their popularity, existing analytical methods largely rely on…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-12 Liangbo Lyu , Bingkai Wang

The estimation of causal treatment effects from observational data is a fundamental problem in causal inference. To avoid bias, the effect estimator must control for all confounders. Hence practitioners often collect data for as many…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-05 Kristjan Greenewald , Dmitriy Katz-Rogozhnikov , Karthik Shanmugam

We consider estimation of the target population average treatment effect (TATE) when outcome information is unavailable. Instead, we observe the outcome in multiple source populations and wish to combine the treatment effects therein to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-16 Zehao Su , Helene Charlotte Rytgaard , Henrik Ravn , Frank Eriksson

Large-scale models require substantial computational resources for analysis and studying treatment conditions. Specifically, estimating treatment effects using simulations may require a lot of infeasible resources to allocate at every…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2023-08-28 Abdulrahman A. Ahmed , M. Amin Rahimian , Mark S. Roberts

As an important problem in causal inference, we discuss the identification and estimation of treatment effects (TEs) under limited overlap; that is, when subjects with certain features belong to a single treatment group. We use a latent…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-22 Pengzhou Wu , Kenji Fukumizu

There is intense interest in applying machine learning to problems of causal inference in fields such as healthcare, economics and education. In particular, individual-level causal inference has important applications such as precision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-17 Uri Shalit , Fredrik D. Johansson , David Sontag

This paper studies identification and estimation of average causal effects, such as average marginal or treatment effects, in fixed effects logit models with short panels. Relating the identified set of these effects to an extremal moment…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-20 Laurent Davezies , Xavier D'Haultfœuille , Louise Laage

Long-term causal inference has drawn increasing attention in many scientific domains. Existing methods mainly focus on estimating average long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational data and short-term experimental data.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Junjie Wan , Zeqin Yang , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Causal inference methods based on electronic health record (EHR) databases must simultaneously handle confounding and missing data. Vast scholarship exists aimed at addressing these two issues separately, but surprisingly few papers attempt…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-28 Luke Benz , Alexander Levis , Sebastien Haneuse

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often suffer from limited inferential efficiency in estimating treatment effects due to their small sample sizes. In recent years, incorporating external controls (ECs) has gained increasing attention as…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-16 Qinwei Yang , Jingyi Li , Peng Wu , Shu Yang

We propose causal effect estimators based on empirical Fr\'{e}chet means and operator-valued kernels, tailored to functional data spaces. These methods address the challenges of high-dimensionality, sequential ordering, and model complexity…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-04 Yordan P. Raykov , Hengrui Luo , Justin D. Strait , Wasiur R. KhudaBukhsh

Randomized controlled trials are the standard method for estimating causal effects, ensuring sufficient statistical power and confidence through adequate sample sizes. However, achieving such sample sizes is often challenging. This study…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-28 Keisuke Hanada , Masahiro Kojima

In multi-site randomized trials with many sites and few randomization units per site, an Empirical-Bayes estimator can be used to estimate the variance of the treatment effect across sites. When this estimator indicates that treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-12 Clément de Chaisemartin , Antoine Deeb

One of the major challenges in estimating conditional potential outcomes and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is the presence of hidden confounders. Since testing for hidden confounders cannot be accomplished only with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Ahmed Aloui , Juncheng Dong , Ali Hasan , Vahid Tarokh

Interval identification of parameters such as average treatment effects, average partial effects and welfare is particularly common when using observational data and experimental data with imperfect compliance due to the endogeneity of…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-09 Sukjin Han , Adam McCloskey

We investigate large-sample properties of treatment effect estimators under unknown interference in randomized experiments. The inferential target is a generalization of the average treatment effect estimand that marginalizes over potential…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-25 Fredrik Sävje , Peter M. Aronow , Michael G. Hudgens

Causal inference has numerous real-world applications in many domains, such as health care, marketing, political science, and online advertising. Treatment effect estimation, a fundamental problem in causal inference, has been extensively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-03 Zhixuan Chu , Jianmin Huang , Ruopeng Li , Wei Chu , Sheng Li

Within heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) analysis, various estimands have been proposed to capture the effect of a treatment conditional on covariates. Recently, the conditional quantile comparator (CQC) has emerged as a promising…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-28 Josh Givens , Song Liu , Henry W J Reeve , Katarzyna Reluga

We address a core problem in causal inference: estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using panel data with general treatment patterns. Many existing methods either do not utilize the potential underlying structure in panel data or have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-11 Retsef Levi , Elisabeth Paulson , Georgia Perakis , Emily Zhang

Estimating how a treatment affects different individuals, known as heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, is an important problem in empirical sciences. In the last few years, there has been a considerable interest in adapting machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Christopher Tran , Keith Burghardt , Kristina Lerman , Elena Zheleva