Related papers: Overshoot in biological systems modeled by Markov …
Motivated by applications to COVID dynamics, we describe a branching process in random environments model $\{Z_n\}$ whose characteristics change when crossing upper and lower thresholds. This introduces a cyclical path behavior involving…
We analyst in detail a new approach to the monitoring and forecasting of the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems (see Phys. Rev. Lett . vol. 113, 264102 (2014)) by application to the Tangled Nature Model of evolutionary…
A stochastic system under the influence of a stochastic environment is correlated with both present and future states of the environment. Such a system can be seen as implicitly implementing a predictive model of future environmental…
The methodology named LIFE (Linear-in-Flux-Expressions) was developed with the purpose of simulating and analyzing large metabolic systems. With LIFE, the number of model parameters is reduced by accounting for correlations among the…
We investigate nonequilibrium steady-state dynamics in both continuous- and discrete-state stochastic processes. Our analysis focuses on planar diffusion dynamics and their coarse-grained approximations by discrete-state Markov chains.…
From molecular, cellular, to ecological systems, the modeling of biological processes often stands on the assumption that fast components immediately reach the equilibrium at each moment (quasi-steady state) and only slow components govern…
Dynamic heterogeneity has often been modeled by assuming that a single-particle observable, fluctuating at a molecular scale, is influenced by its coupling to environmental variables fluctuating on a second, perhaps slower, time scale.…
We propose a thermodynamically consistent minimal model to study synchronization which is made of driven and interacting three-state units. This system exhibits at the mean-field level two bifurcations separating three dynamical phases: a…
Stochastic reaction networks are mathematical models with a wide range of applications in biochemistry, ecology, and epidemiology, and are often complex to analyze. Except for some special cases, it is generally difficult to predict how the…
Minimizing both power fluctuations and energy waste in an electrical grid is a central challenge to energy policy. Any discrepancy between power production and loads may lead to inefficiencies and instability in the system. Right now, the…
The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…
We describe a simple method that can be used to sample the rare fluctuations of discrete-time Markov chains. We focus on the case of Markov chains with well-defined steady-state measures, and derive expressions for the large-deviation rate…
We study the disruption process of hierarchical 3-body systems with bodies of comparable mass. Such systems have long survival times that vary by orders of magnitude depending on the initial conditions. By comparing with 3-body numerical…
Recent measurements of durations of non-equilibrium processes provide valuable information on microscopic mechanisms and energetics. Comprehensive theory for corresponding experiments so far is well developed for single-particle systems…
Noise plays a fundamental role in a wide variety of physical and biological dynamical systems. It can arise from an external forcing or due to random dynamics internal to the system. It is well established that even weak noise can result in…
Microscopic particles suspended in liquids are the prime example of an overdamped system because viscous forces dominate over inertial effects. Apart from their use as model systems, they receive considerable attention as sensitive probes…
Various natural and engineered systems, from urban traffic flow to the human brain, can be described by large-scale networked dynamical systems. These systems are similar in being comprised of a large number of microscopic subsystems, each…
A large number of biological systems - from bacteria to sheep - can be described as ensembles of self-propelled agents (active particles) with a complex internal dynamic that controls the agent's behavior: resting, moving slow, moving fast,…
The extremal behaviour of a Markov chain is typically characterized by its tail chain. For asymptotically dependent Markov chains existing formulations fail to capture the full evolution of the extreme event when the chain moves out of the…
We consider exchangeable Markov multi-state survival processes -- temporal processes taking values over a state-space$\mathcal{S}$ with at least one absorbing failure state $\flat \in \mathcal{S}$ that satisfy natural invariance properties…