Related papers: Computation of expectations by Markov chain Monte …
Markov chain Monte Carlo is a class of algorithms for drawing Markovian samples from high-dimensional target densities to approximate the numerical integration associated with computing statistical expectation, especially in Bayesian…
This review paper, written for the second edition of the Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo, provides an introduction to the study of convergence analysis for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), aimed at researchers new to the field. We…
We consider the problem of estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution with an unknown normalizing constant, and where even the unnormalized target needs to be approximated at finite resolution. This setting is ubiquitous…
Accept-reject based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are the workhorse algorithm for Bayesian inference. These algorithms, like Metropolis-Hastings, require choosing a proposal distribution which is typically informed by the desired…
In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…
Estimating Monte Carlo error is critical to valid simulation results in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and initial sequence estimators were one of the first methods introduced for this. Over the last few years, focus has been on…
Calculating a Monte Carlo standard error (MCSE) is an important step in the statistical analysis of the simulation output obtained from a Markov chain Monte Carlo experiment. An MCSE is usually based on an estimate of the variance of the…
Conditional Monte Carlo (CMC) has been widely used for sensitivity estimation with discontinuous integrands as a standard simulation technique. A major limitation of using CMC in this context is that finding conditioning variables to ensure…
Monte Carlo (MC) simulations of many systems, in particular those with conflicting constraints, can be considerably speeded up by using multicanonical or related methods. Some of these approaches sample with a-priori unknown weight factors.…
Many problems of practical interest rely on Continuous-time Markov chains~(CTMCs) defined over combinatorial state spaces, rendering the computation of transition probabilities, and hence probabilistic inference, difficult or impossible…
Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which automatically tune their parameters based on past samples, have proved extremely useful in practice. The self-tuning mechanism makes them `non-Markovian', which means that their…
Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo methods present a convenient approach for approximating the expected value of a random variable. Algorithms exist to adaptively sample the random variable until a user defined absolute error tolerance is…
This article is a tutorial on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations and their statistical analysis. The theoretical concepts are illustrated through many numerical assignments from the author's book on the subject. Computer code (in Fortran)…
The Monte Carlo (MC) method is the most common technique used for uncertainty quantification, due to its simplicity and good statistical results. However, its computational cost is extremely high, and, in many cases, prohibitive.…
We propose a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for the Bayesian inference of random field parameters in PDEs using high-resolution data. Compared to existing multilevel MCMC methods, we additionally consider level-dependent…
Testing between hypotheses, when independent sampling is possible, is a well developed subject. In this paper, we propose hypothesis tests that are applicable when the samples are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo. These tests are…
We attempt to trace the history and development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) from its early inception in the late 1940s through its use today. We see how the earlier stages of Monte Carlo (MC, not MCMC) research have led to the…
Inspired by the latest developments in multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods and randomised sketching for linear algebra problems we propose a MLMC estimator for real-time processing of matrix structured random data. Our algorithm is…
Tasks such as record linkage and multi-target tracking, which involve reconstructing the set of objects that underlie some observed data, are particularly challenging for probabilistic inference. Recent work has achieved efficient and…
In recent decades, a number of profound theorems concerning approximation of hard counting problems have appeared. These include estimation of the permanent, estimating the volume of a convex polyhedron, and counting (approximately) the…