Related papers: Failure dynamics of the global risk network
The spread of an infection on a real-world social network is determined by the interplay of two processes: the dynamics of the network, whose structure changes over time according to the encounters between individuals, and the dynamics on…
The frequency of disruptive and newly emerging threats (e.g. man-made attacks--cyber and physical attacks; extreme natural events--hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods) has escalated dramatically in the last decade. Impacts of these events…
Interdependent networks are characterized by two kinds of interactions: The usual connectivity links within each network and the dependency links coupling nodes of different networks. Due to the latter links such networks are known to…
Excessive leverage, i.e. the abuse of debt financing, is considered one of the primary factors in the default of financial institutions. Systemic risk results from correlations between individual default probabilities that cannot be…
Burstiness, the tendency of interaction events to be heterogeneously distributed in time, is critical to information diffusion in physical and social systems. However, an analytical framework capturing the effect of burstiness on generic…
The question of how to stabilize financial systems has attracted considerable attention since the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. Recently, Beale et al. ("Individual versus systemic risk and the regulator's dilemma", Proc Natl Acad…
We develop a novel stress-test framework to monitor systemic risk in financial systems. The modular structure of the framework allows to accommodate for a variety of shock scenarios, methods to estimate interbank exposures and mechanisms of…
Recent work in the area of interdependent networks has focused on interactions between two systems of the same type. However, an important and ubiquitous class of systems are those involving monitoring and control, an example of…
Robust risk minimisation has several advantages: it has been studied with regards to improving the generalisation properties of models and robustness to adversarial perturbation. We bound the distributionally robust risk for a model class…
Disease awareness in infection dynamics can be modeled with adaptive contact networks whose rewiring rules reflect the attempt by susceptibles to avoid infectious contacts. Simulations of this type of models show an active phase with…
We consider the goal of predicting how complex networks respond to chronic (press) perturbations when characterizations of their network topology and interaction strengths are associated with uncertainty. Our primary result is the…
Following the financial crisis of 2007-2008, a deep analogy between the origins of instability in financial systems and complex ecosystems has been pointed out: in both cases, topological features of network structures influence how easily…
Models of complex networks often incorporate node-intrinsic properties abstracted as hidden variables. The probability of connections in the network is then a function of these variables. Real-world networks evolve over time, and many…
A risk analyst assesses potential financial losses based on multiple sources of information. Often, the assessment does not only depend on the specification of the loss random variable but also various economic scenarios. Motivated by this…
Human achievements are often preceded by repeated attempts that initially fail, yet little is known about the mechanisms governing the dynamics of failure. Here, building on the rich literature on innovation, human dynamics and learning, we…
The numerous expanding online social networks offer fast channels for misinformation spreading, which could have a serious impact on socioeconomic systems. Researchers across multiple areas have paid attention to this issue with a view of…
The large-scale organization of the world economies is exhibiting increasingly levels of local heterogeneity and global interdependency. Understanding the relation between local and global features calls for analytical tools able to uncover…
The contact structure of the population shapes the progression of epidemics. Nonetheless, the joint evolution of individual behavioral adaptations and disease dynamics on networks remains poorly understood. We use a…
Temporal social networks of human interactions are preponderant in understanding the fundamental patterns of human behavior. In these networks, interactions occur locally between individuals (i.e., nodes) who connect with each other at…
In a recent paper, it has been suggested that the controllability of a diffusively coupled complex network, subject to localized feedback loops at some of its vertices, can be assessed by means of a Master Stability Function approach, where…