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Related papers: Some large deviations in Kingman's coalescent

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Consider a population evolving from year to year through three seasons: spring, summer and winter. Every spring starts with $N$ dormant individuals waking up independently of each other according to a given distribution. Once an individual…

Consider a population evolving as a critical continuous-time Galton-Watson (GW) tree. Conditional on the population surviving until a large time $T$, sample $k$ individuals uniformly at random (without replacement) from amongst those alive…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-07 Simon C. Harris , Samuel G. G. Johnston , Juan Carlos Pardo

We consider a random tree and introduce a metric in the space of trees to define the ``mean tree'' as the tree minimizing the average distance to the random tree. When the resulting metric space is compact we have laws of large numbers and…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 David Balding , Pablo A. Ferrari , Ricardo Fraiman , Mariela Sued

In this article, we consider a branching random walk on the real-line where displacements coming from the same parent have jointly regularly varying tails. The genealogical structure is assumed to be a supercritical Galton-Watson tree,…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-07 Ayan Bhattacharya

The distributions of the times to the first common ancestor t_mrca is numerically studied for an ecological population model, the extended Moran model. This model has a fixed population size N. The number of descendants is drawn from a beta…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-10-30 Alexander K. Hartmann , Thierry E. Huillet

We define a multi-type coalescent point process of a general branching process with finitely many types. This multi-type coalescent fully describes the genealogy of the (quasi-stationary) standing population, providing types along ancestral…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-18 Lea Popovic , Mariolys Rivas

We analyse sequential Markov coalescent algorithms for populations with demographic structure: for a bottleneck model, a population-divergence model, and for a two-island model with migration. The sequential Markov coalescent method is an…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-10-01 A. Eriksson , B. Mahjani , B. Mehlig

Consider an arbitrary large population at the present time, originated at an unspecified arbitrary large time in the past, where individuals in the same generation reproduce independently, forward in time, with the same offspring…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-05 Airam Blancas , Sandra Palau

Recovery of population size history from molecular sequence data is an important problem in population genetics. Inference commonly relies on a coalescent model linking the population size history to genealogies. The high computational cost…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-17 James E. Johndrow , Julia A. Palacios

We explore the connection between evolution and large-deviation theory. To do so, we study evolutionary dynamics in which individuals experience mutations, reproduction, and selection using variants of the Moran model. We show that, in the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-09 Sara Dal Cengio , Quentin Laurenceau , Vivien Lecomte , Charline Smadi , Julien Tailleur

Consider the following partial "sorting algorithm" on permutations: take the first entry of the permutation in one-line notation and insert it into the position of its own value. Continue until the first entry is 1. This process imposes a…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-17 Tobias Johnson , Anne Schilling , Erik Slivken

The transition distribution of a sample taken from a Wright-Fisher diffusion with general small mutation rates is found using a coalescent approach. The approximation is equivalent to having at most one mutation in the coalescent tree of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-09-12 Conrad J. Burden , Robert C. Griffiths

Growth-fragmentation processes model systems of cells that grow continuously over time and then fragment into smaller pieces. Typically, on average, the number of cells in the system exhibits asynchronous exponential growth and, upon…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-08 Emma Horton , Alexander R. Watson

Consider a haploid population which has evolved through an exchangeable reproduction dynamics, and in which all individuals alive at time $t$ have a most recent common ancestor (MRCA) who lived at time $A_t$, say. As time goes on, not only…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 P. Pfaffelhuber , A. Wakolbinger

Taylors Law (TL) describes the scaling relationship between the mean and variance of populations as a power-law. TL is widely observed in ecological systems across space and time with exponents varying largely between 1 and 2. Many…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-02-24 Xiao Xiao , Kenneth J. Locey , Ethan P. White

We consider the branching process in random environment $\{Z_n\}_{n\geq 0}$, which is a~population growth process where individuals reproduce independently of each other with the reproduction law randomly picked at each generation. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-30 Dariusz Buraczewski , Piotr Dyszewski

Consider a population where individuals give birth at constant rate during their lifetimes to i.i.d. copies of themselves. Individuals bear clonally inherited types, but (neutral) mutations may happen at the birth events. The smallest…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-29 Cécile Delaporte

In classical probability theory, the convergence of empirical frequencies to theoretical probabilities: as captured by the Law of Large Numbers (LLN): is treated as axiomatic and emergent from statistical assumptions such as independence…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-06-19 Allen Lobo

We are interested in the dynamic of a structured branching population where the trait of each individual moves according to a Markov process. The rate of division of each individual is a function of its trait and when a branching event…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-29 Aline Marguet

Reconstructing past population size from present day genetic data is a major goal of population genetics. Recent empirical studies infer population size history using coalescent-based models applied to a small number of individuals. Here we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2014-09-30 Junhyong Kim , Elchanan Mossel , Miklós Z. Rácz , Nathan Ross