Related papers: Multivariate stochastic volatility modelling using…

We review autoregressive models for the analysis of multivariate count time series. In doing so, we discuss the choice of a suitable distribution for a vectors of count random variables. This review focus on three main approaches taken for…

Building upon factor decomposition to overcome the curse of dimensionality inherent in multivariate volatility processes, we develop a factor model-based multivariate stochastic volatility (fMSV) framework. We propose a two-stage estimation…

When considering the problem of forecasting a continuous-time stochastic process over an entire time-interval in terms of its recent past, the notion of Autoregressive Hilbert space processes (ARH) arises. This model can be seen as a…

We propose a computationally intensive method, the random lasso method, for variable selection in linear models. The method consists of two major steps. In step 1, the lasso method is applied to many bootstrap samples, each using a set of…

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models assume linearity between the endogenous variables and their lags. This assumption might be overly restrictive and could have a deleterious impact on forecasting accuracy. As a solution, we propose…

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in practical studies, e.g., forecasting, modelling policy transmission mechanism, and measuring connection of economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this paper introduces a new…

The paper proposes a time-varying parameter global vector autoregressive (TVP-GVAR) framework for predicting and analysing developed region economic variables. We want to provide an easily accessible approach for the economy application…

This paper is concerned with the estimation of time-varying networks for high-dimensional nonstationary time series. Two types of dynamic behaviors are considered: structural breaks (i.e., abrupt change points) and smooth changes. To…

The multidimensional Uncertain Volatility Model leads to robust option pricing problems under joint volatility and correlation uncertainty. Their numerical resolution quickly becomes challenging because the associated stochastic control…

We present a stepwise approach to estimate high dimensional Gaussian graphical models. We exploit the relation between the partial correlation coefficients and the distribution of the prediction errors, and parametrize the model in terms of…

We propose a new variable selection procedure for a functional linear model with multiple scalar responses and multiple functional predictors. This method is based on basis expansions of the involved functional predictors and coefficients…

We propose a recursive Bayesian estimation procedure for multivariate autoregressive models with exogenous inputs based on message passing in a factor graph. Unlike recursive least-squares, our method produces full posterior distributions…

We consider jointly estimating the coefficient matrix and the error precision matrix in high-dimensional multivariate linear regression models. Bayesian methods in this context often face computational challenges, leading to previous…

We introduce a new regression method that relates the mean of an outcome variable to covariates, under the "adverse condition" that a distress variable falls in its tail. This allows to tailor classical mean regressions to adverse…

In this paper we introduce a multilevel specification with stochastic volatility for repeated cross-sectional data. Modelling the time dynamics in repeated cross sections requires a suitable adaptation of the multilevel framework where the…

A weighted regression procedure is proposed for regression type problems where the innovations are heavy-tailed. This method approximates the least absolute regression method in large samples, and the main advantage will be if the sample is…

In this paper, we propose a computationally valid and theoretically justified methods, the likelihood ratio scan method (LRSM), for estimating multiple change-points in a piecewise stationary generalized conditional integer-valued…

We suggest two classes of multivariate GARCH--models which are both easy to estimate and perform well in forecasting the covariance matrix of more than one hundred stocks. We apply methods from random matrix theory (RMT) to determine the…

A general method to construct recombinant tree approximations for stochastic volatility models is developed and applied to the Heston model for stock price dynamics. In this application, the resulting approximation is a four tuple Markov…

This work introduces a novel, simple, and flexible method to quantify irreversibility in generic high-dimensional time series based on the well-known mapping to a binary classification problem. Our approach utilizes gradient boosting for…