Related papers: Default Clustering in Large Pools: Large Deviation…
The modeling of the probability of joint default or total number of defaults among the firms is one of the crucial problems to mitigate the credit risk since the default correlations significantly affect the portfolio loss distribution and…
We analyze the fluctuation of the loss from default around its large portfolio limit in a class of reduced-form models of correlated firm-by-firm default timing. We prove a weak convergence result for the fluctuation process and use it for…
In this paper, we propose a method that provides a useful technique to compare relationship between risks involved that takes customer become defaulter and debt collection process that might make this defaulter recovered. Through estimation…
In this paper we analyze the resilience of a network of banks to joint price fluctuations of the external assets in which they have shared exposures, and evaluate the worst-case effects of the possible default contagion. Indeed, when the…
Excessive leverage, i.e. the abuse of debt financing, is considered one of the primary factors in the default of financial institutions. Systemic risk results from correlations between individual default probabilities that cannot be…
We propose a novel credit default model that takes into account the impact of macroeconomic information and contagion effect on the defaults of obligors. We use a set-valued Markov chain to model the default process, which is the set of all…
We study cascading failures in a system comprising interdependent networks/systems, in which nodes rely on other nodes both in the same system and in other systems to perform their function. The (inter-)dependence among nodes is modeled…
The classical reduced-form and filtration expansion framework in credit risk is extended to the case of multiple, non-ordered defaults, assuming that conditional densities of the default times exist. Intensities and pricing formulas are…
We study a two-species bidirectional exclusion process, and a single species variant, which is motivated by the motion of organelles and vesicles along microtubules. Specifically, we are interested in the clustering of the particles and…
The large deviation principle on phase space is proved for a class of Markov processes known as random population dynamics with catastrophes. In the paper we study the process which corresponds to the random population dynamics with linear…
This work has the objective of estimating default probabilities and correlations of credit portfolios given default rate information through a Bayesian framework using Stan. We use Vasicek's single factor credit model to establish the…
In the analysis of large random wireless networks, the underlying node distribution is almost ubiquitously assumed to be the homogeneous Poisson point process. In this paper, the node locations are assumed to form a Poisson clustered…
We propose a generic system model for a special category of interdependent networks, demand-supply networks, in which the demand and the supply nodes are associated with heterogeneous loads and resources, respectively. Our model sheds a…
In a freely cooling granular material fluctuations in density and temperature cause position dependent energy loss. Due to strong local dissipation, pressure and energy drop rapidly and material moves from `hot' to `cold' regions, leading…
We study optimal investment in an asset subject to risk of default for investors that rely on different levels of information. The price dynamics can include noises both from a Wiener process and a Poisson random measure with infinite…
This paper considers the Cram\'er-Lundberg model, with the additional feature that the number of clients can fluctuate over time. Clients arrive according to a Poisson process, where the times they spend in the system form a sequence of…
Interdependencies are ubiquitous throughout the world. Every real-world system interacts with and is dependent on other systems, and this interdependency affects their performance. In particular, interdependencies among networks make them…
Random arrangements of points in the plane, interacting only through a simple hard core exclusion, are considered. An intensity parameter controls the average density of arrangements, in analogy with the Poisson point process. It is proved…
Time-irreversible stochastic processes are frequently used in natural sciences to explain non-equilibrium phenomena and to design efficient stochastic algorithms. Our main goal in this thesis is to analyse their dynamics by means of large…
How do large deviation events in a stationary process cluster? The answer depends not only on the type of large deviations, but also on the length of memory in the process. Somewhat unexpectedly, it may also depend on the tails of the…