Related papers: There is a VaR beyond usual approximations

We develop an extreme value framework for CoVaR centered on $v(q \mid p ; C)$, the copula-adjusted probability level, or equivalently, the CoVaR on the uniform (0,1) scale. We characterize the possible tail regimes of $v(q \mid p ; C)$…

We consider optimal allocation problems with Conditional Value-At-Risk (CVaR) constraint. We prove, under very mild assumptions, the convergence of the Sample Average Approximation method (SAA) applied to this problem, and we also exhibit a…

Worst-case risk measures refer to the calculation of the largest value for risk measures when only partial information of the underlying distribution is available. For the popular risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional…

Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) launched in 1997 the model CreditRisk+ which aims at calculating the loss distribution of a credit portfolio on the basis of a methodology from actuarial mathematics. Knowing the loss distribution, it is…

In this paper we study time-consistent risk measures for returns that are given by a GARCH(1,1) model. We present a construction of risk measures based on their static counterparts that overcomes the lack of time-consistency. We then study…

This paper explores option portfolio optimization when the underlying returns are skew-elliptical t-distributed. We use the variance and value at risk (VaR) to measure portfolio risk. The novelty of our work is the departure from the…

In this contribution we consider the overall risk given as the sum of random subrisks $\mathbf{X}_j$ in the context of value-at-risk (VaR) based risk calculations. If we assume that the undertaking knows the parametric distribution family…

Expected Shortfall (ES) is the average return on a risky asset conditional on the return being below some quantile of its distribution, namely its Value-at-Risk (VaR). The Basel III Accord, which will be implemented in the years leading up…

In economics, insurance and finance, value at risk (VaR) is a widely used measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets. For a given portfolio, time horizon, and probability $\alpha$, the $100\alpha\%$ VaR is…

Managing insurance and financial risk when data is limited is a key task in the insurance industry. In this paper, we focus on cases where the risk distribution is modeled as a mixture with some components estimable to high precision or…

A semi-parametric joint Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting framework employing multiple realized measures is developed. The proposed framework extends the realized exponential GARCH model to be semi-parametrically…

In the world of modern financial theory, portfolio construction has traditionally operated under at least one of two central assumptions: the constraints are derived from a utility function and/or the multivariate probability distribution…

Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and Value-at-Risk (VaR), also called the superquantile and quantile, are frequently used to characterize the tails of probability distribution's and are popular measures of risk. Buffered Probability of…

The banking systems that deal with risk management depend on underlying risk measures. Following the Basel II accord, there are two separate methods by which banks may determine their capital requirement. The Value at Risk measure plays an…

We consider calculation of capital requirements when the underlying economic scenarios are determined by simulatable risk factors. In the respective nested simulation framework, the goal is to estimate portfolio tail risk, quantified via…

We consider a class of chance-constrained programs in which profit needs to be maximized while enforcing that a given adverse event remains rare. Using techniques from large deviations and extreme value theory, we show how the optimal value…

We introduce a proxy-reliance-controlled conformal recalibration framework for one-sided Value-at-Risk (VaR), and study a question that existing state-aware methods do not usually isolate: how strongly should the recalibration adjustment…

In financial risk management, Value at Risk (VaR) is widely used to estimate potential portfolio losses. VaR's limitation is its inability to account for the magnitude of losses beyond a certain threshold. Expected Shortfall (ES) addresses…

A new risk measure, the lambda value at risk (Lambda VaR), has been recently proposed from a theoretical point of view as a generalization of the value at risk (VaR). The Lambda VaR appears attractive for its potential ability to solve…

In this paper, a new way to integrate volatility information for estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a portfolio is suggested. The new method is developed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics and it…