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Statistical inference for non-stationary data is hindered by the failure of classical central limit theorems (CLTs), not least because there is no fixed Gaussian limit to converge to. To resolve this, we introduce relative weak convergence,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Nicolai Palm , Thomas Nagler

We propose a new weak convergence theorem for martingales, under gentler conditions than the usual convergence in probability of the sequence of associated quadratic variations. Its proof requires the combined use of Skorohod's…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-30 Bruno Rémillard , Jean Vaillancourt

We consider a Markov chain on $R^+$ with asymptotically zero drift and finite second moments of jumps which is positive recurrent. A power-like asymptotic behaviour of the invariant tail distribution is proven; such a heavy-tailed invariant…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-08-16 Denis Denisov , Dmitry Korshunov , Vitali Wachtel

We derive an asymptotic theory of nonparametric estimation for a time series regression model $Z_t=f(X_t)+W_t$, where \ensuremath\{X_t\} and \ensuremath\{Z_t\} are observed nonstationary processes and $\{W_t\}$ is an unobserved stationary…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Hans Arnfinn Karlsen , Terje Myklebust , Dag Tjøstheim

We determine the asymptotic behavior of the Arakelov metric, the Arakelov-Green's function, and the Faltings delta-invariant for arbitrary one-parameter families of complex curves with semistable degeneration. The leading terms in the…

Algebraic Geometry · Mathematics 2022-07-13 Robin de Jong

We consider asymptotic behavior of Fourier transforms of stationary ergodic sequences with finite second moments. We establish a central limit theorem (CLT) for almost all frequencies and also an annealed CLT. The theorems hold for all…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-11-08 Magda Peligrad , Wei Biao Wu

In this paper we develop non-stationary martingale techniques for dependent data. We shall stress the non-stationary version of the projective Maxwell-Woodroofe condition, which will be essential for obtaining maximal inequalities and…

This paper is concerned with asymptotic behavior of a variety of functionals of increments of continuous semimartingales. Sampling times are assumed to follow a rather general discretization scheme. If an underlying semimartingale is…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-04 Michael Levine , Xiaoguang Wang , Jian Frank Zou

Consider the class of (functions of) strictly stationary Markov chains in which (i) the second moments are finite and (ii) absolute regularity (beta-mixing) is satisfied with exponential mixing rate. For (functions of) Markov chains in that…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-07 Richard C. Bradley

The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) for additive functionals of Markov chains is a well known result with a long history. In this paper we present applications to two finite-memory versions of the Elephant Random Walk, solving a problem from…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-04 Iddo Ben-Ari , Jonah Green , Taylor Meredith , Hugo Panzo , Xiaoran Tan

Adaptive and interacting Markov Chains Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a novel class of non-Markovian algorithms aimed at improving the simulation efficiency for complicated target distributions. In this paper, we study a general…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-07-15 Gersende Fort , Eric Moulines , Pierre Priouret , Pierre Vandekerkhove

Asymptotic expansions with explicit upper bounds for remainders are given for stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed semi-Markov processes with finite phase spaces. The corresponding algorithms are based on a special technique of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-16 Dmitrii Silvestrov , Sergei Silvestrov

We solve the problem of asymptotic behaviour of the renewal measure (Green function) generated by a transient Lamperti's Markov chain $X_n$ in $\mathbf R$, that is, when the drift of the chain tends to zero at infinity. Under this setting,…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-06 Denis Denisov , Dmitry Korshunov , Vitali Wachtel

A variational formula for the asymptotic variance of general Markov processes is obtained. As application, we get a upper bound of the mean exit time of reversible Markov processes, and some comparison theorems between the reversible and…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-02 Lu-Jing Huang , Yong-Hua Mao , Tao Wang

Using the renewal approach we prove exponential inequalities for additive functionals and empirical processes of ergodic Markov chains, thus obtaining counterparts of inequalities for sums of independent random variables. The inequalities…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-18 Radosław Adamczak , Witold Bednorz

In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of stochastic approximation schemes with set-valued drift function and non-additive iterate-dependent Markov noise. We show that a linearly interpolated trajectory of such a recursion is an…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-07-19 Vinayaka Yaji , Shalabh Bhatnagar

This pedagogical document explains three variational representations that are useful when comparing the efficiencies of reversible Markov chains: (i) the Dirichlet form and the associated variational representations of the spectral gaps;…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-23 Chris Sherlock

We prove that the limit profile of a sequence of reversible Markov chains exhibiting total variation cutoff is a continuous function, under a computable condition involving the spectrum of the transition matrix and the cutoff window.

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-13 Evita Nestoridi

We determine the asymptotic behavior of the realized power variations, or more generally of sums of a given test function evaluated at the successive increments of a L\'{e}vy process. One can completely elucidate the first order behavior…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jean Jacod

We study CMV matrices by focusing on their right-limit sets. We prove a CMV version of a recent result of Remling dealing with the implications of the existence of absolutely continuous spectrum, and we study some of its consequences. We…

Spectral Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-13 Jonathan Breuer , Eric Ryckman , Maxim Zinchenko