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Model selection is often performed by empirical risk minimization. The quality of selection in a given situation can be assessed by risk bounds, which require assumptions both on the margin and the tails of the losses used. Starting with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Charles Mitchell , Sara van de Geer

We propose a general theorem providing upper bounds for the risk of an empirical risk minimizer (ERM).We essentially focus on the binary classification framework. We extend Tsybakov's analysis of the risk of an ERM under margin type…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-14 Pascal Massart , Élodie Nédélec

The so-called pinball loss for estimating conditional quantiles is a well-known tool in both statistics and machine learning. So far, however, only little work has been done to quantify the efficiency of this tool for nonparametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-11 Ingo Steinwart , Andreas Christmann

This paper investigates the expected excess risk of in-context learning (ICL) for multiclass classification. We formalize each task as a sequence of labeled examples followed by a query input; a pretrained model then estimates the query's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-03 Chenrui Liu , Falong Tan , Chuanlong Xie , Yicheng Zeng , Lixing Zhu

Entropy based ideas find wide-ranging applications in finance for calibrating models of portfolio risk as well as options pricing. The abstracted problem, extensively studied in the literature, corresponds to finding a probability measure…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-11-04 Santanu Dey , Sandeep Juneja , Karthyek R. A. Murthy

We prove oracle inequalities for a penalized log-likelihood criterion that hold even if the data are not independent and not stationary, based on a martingale approach. The assumptions are checked for various contexts: density estimation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-20 Julien Aubert , Luc Lehéricy , Patricia Reynaud-Bouret

Beneficial to advanced computing devices, models with massive parameters are increasingly employed to extract more information to enhance the precision in describing and predicting the patterns of objective systems. This phenomenon is…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-03-08 Liye Jia , Fengyufan Yang , Ka Lok Man , Erick Purwanto , Sheng-Uei Guan , Jeremy Smith , Yutao Yue

We introduce a framework for uncertainty estimation that both describes and extends many existing methods. We consider typical hyperparameters involved in classical training as random variables and marginalise them out to capture various…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-07 Francesco Farina , Lawrence Phillips , Nicola J Richmond

Obtaining guarantees on the convergence of the minimizers of empirical risks to the ones of the true risk is a fundamental matter in statistical learning. Instead of deriving guarantees on the usual estimation error, the goal of this paper…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-12 Paul Escande

Our paper contributes to the theory of conditional risk measures and conditional certainty equivalents. We adopt a random modular approach which proved to be effective in the study of modular convex analysis and conditional risk measures.…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-11-10 Giulio Principi , Fabio Maccheroni

A novel approach is proposed to establish a sharp upper bound on the expected supremum of a separable martingale random field, serving as an alternative to classical universal chaining-based methods. The proposed approach begins by deriving…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-07 Yoichi Nishiyama

We show that empirical risk minimization procedures and regularized empirical risk minimization procedures satisfy nonexact oracle inequalities in an unbounded framework, under the assumption that the class has a subexponential envelope…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-06-06 Guillaume Lecué , Shahar Mendelson

We develop a methodology for conducting inference on extreme quantiles of unobserved individual heterogeneity (e.g., heterogeneous coefficients, treatment effects) in panel data and meta-analysis settings. Inference is challenging in such…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-04 Vladislav Morozov

We establish a new concentration result for regularized risk minimizers which is similar to an oracle inequality. Applying this inequality to regularized least squares minimizers like least squares support vector machines, we show that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Ingo Steinwart , Don Hush , Clint Scovel

In this paper, our aim is to analyse the generalization capabilities of first-order methods for statistical learning in multiple, different yet related, scenarios including supervised learning, transfer learning, robust learning and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Kevin Scaman , Mathieu Even , Batiste Le Bars , Laurent Massoulié

This paper develops a general concentration inequality for the suprema of empirical processes with dependent data. The concentration inequality is obtained by combining generic chaining with a coupling-based strategy. Our framework…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-23 Chiara Amorino , Christian Brownlees , Ankita Ghosh

We study high-dimensional linear models and the $\ell_1$-penalized least squares estimator, also known as the Lasso estimator. In literature, oracle inequalities have been derived under restricted eigenvalue or compatibility conditions. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-07-04 Sara van de Geer , Johannes Lederer

Risk-neutral pricing dictates that the discounted derivative price is a martingale in a measure equivalent to the economic measure. The residual ambiguity for incomplete markets is here resolved by minimising the entropy of the price…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-07-01 Paul McCloud

In this paper we survey some recent results on the central limit theorem and its weak invariance principle for stationary sequences. We also describe several maximal inequalities that are the main tool for obtaining the invariance…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Florence Merlevède , Magda Peligrad , Sergey Utev

The paper deals with conditional linear information inequalities valid for entropy functions induced by discrete random variables. Specifically, the so-called conditional Ingleton inequalities are in the center of interest: these are valid…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-03-16 Milan Studeny
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