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We consider a defaultable asset whose risk-neutral pricing dynamics are described by an exponential Levy-type martingale subject to default. This class of models allows for local volatility, local default intensity, and a locally dependent…
For a general free L\'evy process, we prove the existence of its higher variation processes as limits in distribution, and identify the limits in terms of the L\'evy-It\^o representation of the original process. For a general free compound…
Slow kinetic processes of molecular systems can be analyzed by computing dominant eigenpairs of the Koopman operator or its generator. In this context, the Variational Approach to Markov Processes (VAMP) provides a rigorous way of…
Probabilistic machine learning models are distinguished by their ability to integrate prior knowledge of noise statistics, smoothness parameters, and training data uncertainty. A common approach involves modeling data with Gaussian…
L\'evy processes, known for their ability to model complex dynamics with skewness, heavy tails and discontinuities, play a critical role in stochastic modeling across various domains. However, inference for most L\'evy processes, whether in…
In this paper, we develop category theory of Markov kernels to study categorical aspects of Bayesian inversions. As a result, we present a unified model for Bayesian supervised learning, encompassing Bayesian density estimation. We…
We study the small-time asymptotics of sample paths of L\'evy processes and L\'evy-type processes. Namely, we investigate under which conditions the limit $$\limsup_{t \to 0} \frac{1}{f(t)} |X_t-X_0|$$ is finite resp.\ infinite with…
Stochastic volatility modelling of financial processes has become increasingly popular. The proposed models usually contain a stationary volatility process. We will motivate and review several nonparametric methods for estimation of the…
We investigate the behavior of L\'{e}vy processes with convolution equivalent L\'{e}vy measures, up to the time of first passage over a high level u. Such problems arise naturally in the context of insurance risk where u is the initial…
Effective non-parametric density estimation is a key challenge in high-dimensional multivariate data analysis. In this paper,we propose a novel approach that builds upon tensor factorization tools. Any multivariate density can be…
Langevin equations are used to model many processes of physical interest, including low-energy nuclear collisions. In this paper we develop a general method for computing probabilities of very rare events (e.g. small fusion cross-sections)…
Interest in continuous-time processes has increased rapidly in recent years, largely because of high-frequency data available in many applications. We develop a method for estimating the kernel function $g$ of a second-order stationary…
We develop a method that relates the truncated cumulant-function of the fourth order with the L\'evian cumulant-function. This gives us explicit formulas for the L\'evy-parameters, which allow a real-time analysis of the state of a…
It is known that the exponential functional of a Poisson process admits a probability density function in the form of an infinite series. In this paper, we obtain an explicit expression for the density function of the exponential functional…
Bayes' rule tells us how to invert a causal process in order to update our beliefs in light of new evidence. If the process is believed to have a complex compositional structure, we may observe that the inversion of the whole can be…
We derive some estimates for the integral modulus of continuity of probability densities of infinitely divisible distributions. The paper is splitted into two parts. The first part deals with general infinitely divisible distributions. The…
Based on the concept of a L\'evy copula to describe the dependence structure of a multivariate L\'evy process we present a new estimation procedure. We consider a parametric model for the marginal L\'evy processes as well as for the L\'evy…
We suppose that a L\'evy process is observed at discrete time points. Starting from an asymptotically minimax family of estimators for the continuous part of the L\'evy Khinchine characteristics, i.e., the covariance, we derive a…
We develop a stochastic calculus for processes which are built by convoluting a pure jump, zero expectation L\'{e}vy process with a Volterra-type kernel. This class of processes contains, for example, fractional L\'{e}vy processes as…
Local Polynomial Regression (LPR) is a widely used nonparametric method for modeling complex relationships due to its flexibility and simplicity. It estimates a regression function by fitting low-degree polynomials to localized subsets of…