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We discuss importance sampling of exit problems that involve unbounded stopping times; examples are mean first passage times, transition rates or committor probabilities in molecular dynamics. The naive application of variance minimization…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-14 Carsten Hartmann , Annika Jöster

The main goal of this article is to study the effect of small, highly nonlinear, unbounded drifts (small time large deviation principle (LDP) based on exponential equivalence arguments) for a class of stochastic partial differential…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-27 Ankit Kumar , Manil T. Mohan

This paper gives a precise characterization of the fundamental limits of adaptive sensing for diverse estimation and testing problems concerning sparse signals. We consider in particular the setting introduced in (IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-16 Rui M. Castro

Estimating parameters of drift and diffusion coefficients for multidimensional stochastic delay equations with small noise are considered. The delay structure is written as an integral form with respect to a delay measure. Our contrast…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-21 Hiroki Nemoto , Yasutaka Shimizu

Rejective sampling improves design and estimation efficiency of single-phase sampling when auxiliary information in a finite population is available. When such auxiliary information is unavailable, we propose to use two-phase rejective…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-14 Shu Yang , Peng Ding

In this paper, we consider asymptotic behaviors of multiscale multivalued stochastic systems with small noises. First of all, for general, fully coupled systems for multivalued stochastic differential equations of slow and fast motions with…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Huijie Qiao

Freidlin-Wentzell theory of large deviations can be used to compute the likelihood of extreme or rare events in stochastic dynamical systems via the solution of an optimization problem. The approach gives exponential estimates that often…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-09-17 Tobias Grafke , Tobias Schäfer , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

In this work, we analyze the noisy importance sampling (IS), i.e., IS working with noisy evaluations of the target density. We present the general framework and derive optimal proposal densities for noisy IS estimators. The optimal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-24 Fernando Llorente , Luca Martino , Jesse Read , David Delgado-Gómez

In this paper, we consider an importance sampling problem for a certain rare-event simulations involving the behavior of a diffusion process pertaining to a chain of distributed systems with random perturbations. We also assume that the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-08-26 Getachew K. Befekadu

This paper deals with the Monte-Carlo methods for evaluating expectations of functionals of solutions to McKean-Vlasov Stochastic Differential Equations (MV-SDE) with drifts of super-linear growth. We assume that the MV-SDE is approximated…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-15 Goncalo dos Reis , Greig Smith , Peter Tankov

This paper investigates the estimation of different parameters, e.g., propagation distance and flow velocity, by utilizing two fully-absorbing receivers (RXs) in a one-dimensional (1D) environment. The time-varying number of absorbed…

Emerging Technologies · Computer Science 2021-02-17 Xinyu Huang , Yuting Fang , Adam Noel , Nan Yang

We study sequential multiple testing with independent data streams, where the goal is to identify an unknown subset of signals while controlling commonly used error metrics, including generalized familywise rates and false discovery and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-06 Jingyu Liu , Yanglei Song

We establish an ordering criterion for the asymptotic variances of two consistent Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimators: an importance sampling (IS) estimator, based on an approximate reversible chain and subsequent IS weighting, and a…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-06 Jordan Franks , Matti Vihola

Particle beam microscopy (PBM) performs nanoscale imaging by pixelwise capture of scalar values representing noisy measurements of the response from secondary electrons (SEs) integrated over a dwell time. Extended to metrology, goals…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-08-15 Akshay Agarwal , Minxu Peng , Vivek K. Goyal

Importance sampling is a popular method for efficient computation of various properties of a distribution such as probabilities, expectations, quantiles etc. The output of an importance sampling algorithm can be represented as a weighted…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-18 Henrik Hult , Pierre Nyquist

Given noisy data, function estimation is considered when the unknown function is known a priori to consist of a small number of regions where the function is either convex or concave. When the number of regions is unknown, the model…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-14 Kurt S. Riedel

We establish new asymptotic results for the solutions of the second-grade fluids equations and characterize their decay rate in terms of the behavior of the initial data. Moreover, assuming more regularity for the initial data, we study the…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-03-05 Felipe W. Cruz , César J. Niche , Cilon F. Perusato , Marko Rojas-Medar

We consider the problem of the estimation of the mean function of an inhomogeneous Poisson process when its intensity function is periodic. For the mean integrated squared error (MISE) there is a classical lower bound for all estimators and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-25 Samvel Gasparyan

We study statistical inference for small-noise-perturbed multiscale dynamical systems. We prove consistency, asymptotic normality, and convergence of all scaled moments of an appropriately-constructed maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-16 Siragan Gailus , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

We use an effective Markovian description to study the long-time behaviour of a nonlinear second order Langevin equation with Gaussian noise. When dissipation is neglected, the energy of the system grows as with time a power-law with an…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2014-12-19 Kirone Mallick
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