Related papers: Parameter Estimation: The Proper Way to Use Bayesi…
Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…
We consider a ranking and selection (R&S) problem with the goal to select a system with the largest or smallest expected performance measure among a number of simulated systems with a pre-specified probability of correct selection. Fully…
Spectral estimation (SE) aims to identify how the energy of a signal (e.g., a time series) is distributed across different frequencies. This can become particularly challenging when only partial and noisy observations of the signal are…
In this paper we consider the estimation of unknown parameters in Bayesian inverse problems. In most cases of practical interest, there are several barriers to performing such estimation, This includes a numerical approximation of a…
The purpose of the article is twofold. Firstly, we review some recent results on the maximum likelihood estimation in the regression model of the form $X_t = \theta G(t) + B_t$, where $B$ is a Gaussian process, $G(t)$ is a known function,…
We apply Bayesian statistics to the estimation of correlation functions. We give the probability distributions of auto- and cross-correlations as functions of the data. Our procedure uses the measured data optimally and informs about the…
There is a lack of simple and scalable algorithms for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods quantify uncertainty through posterior and predictive distributions, but it is difficult to rapidly estimate summaries of these…
We study the problem of parameter estimation for reflected stochastic processes driven by a standard Brownian motion. The estimator is obtained using nonlinear least squares method based on discretely observed processes. Under some certain…
We study the problem of parameter estimation for the homogenization limit of multiscale systems involving fractional dynamics. In the case of stochastic multiscale systems driven by Brownian motion, it has been shown that in order for the…
Some probabilistic aspects of the number variance statistic are investigated. Infinite systems of independent Brownian motions and symmetric alpha-stable processes are used to construct new examples of processes which exhibit both divergent…
Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…
The d-inverse is a generalized notion of inverse of a stochastic process having a certain tendency of increasing expectations. Scaling limit of the d-inverse of Brownian motion with functional drift is studied. Except for degenerate case,…
We consider the problem of parameter estimation in the case of observation of the trajectory of diffusion process. We suppose that the drift coefficient has a singularity of cusp-type and the unknown parameter corresponds to the position of…
In this paper we consider Bayesian parameter inference for partially observed fractional Brownian motion (fBM) models. The approach we follow is to time-discretize the hidden process and then to design Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
Suppose that a compound Poisson process is observed discretely in time and assume that its jump distribution is supported on the set of natural numbers. In this paper we propose a non-parametric Bayesian approach to estimate the intensity…
We study rates of convergence in central limit theorems for partial sum of functionals of general stationary and non-stationary Gaussian sequences, using optimal tools from analysis on Wiener space. We apply our result to study drift…
Consider the motion of a Brownian particle in two or more dimensions, whose coordinate processes are standard Brownian motions with zero drift initially, and then at some random/unobservable time, one of the coordinate processes gets a…
This paper presents some asymptotic results for statistics of Brownian semi-stationary (BSS) processes. More precisely, we consider power variations of BSS processes, which are based on high frequency (possibly higher order) differences of…
The Bayesian Cram\'er-Rao bound (CRB) provides a lower bound on the mean square error of any Bayesian estimator under mild regularity conditions. It can be used to benchmark the performance of statistical estimators, and provides a…
This paper considers the problem of estimating linear dynamic system models when the observations are corrupted by random disturbances with nonstandard distributions. The paper is particularly motivated by applications where sensor…