Related papers: Fast Bayesian parameter estimation for stochastic …

Statistical analysis of microbiome data is challenging. Bayesian multinomial logistic-normal (MLN) models have gained popularity due to their ability to account for the count compositional nature of these data, but existing approaches are…

This research aims to estimate three parameters in a stochastic generalized logistic differential equation. We assume the intrinsic growth rate and shape parameters are constant but unknown. To estimate these two parameters, we use the…

Strongly nonlinear flows, which commonly arise in geophysical and engineering turbulence, are characterized by persistent and intermittent energy transfer between various spatial and temporal scales. These systems are difficult to model and…

The logistic map is a nonlinear difference equation well studied in the literature, used to model self-limiting growth in certain populations. It is known that, under certain regularity conditions, the stochastic logistic map, where the…

We study the problem of learning the law of linear stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) with additive Gaussian forcing from spatiotemporal observations. Most existing deep learning approaches either assume access to the driving…

Penalized B-splines are routinely used in additive models to describe smooth changes in a response with quantitative covariates. It is typically done through the conditional mean in the exponential family using generalized additive models…

Despite exceptional predictive performance of Deep sequence models (DSMs), the main concern of their deployment centers around the lack of uncertainty awareness. In contrast, probabilistic models quantify the uncertainty associated with…

Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We…

Sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques have been recently proposed for dealing with simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. Unlike approximate Bayesian computation, SNPE techniques learn the posterior from…

We investigate nonlinear state-space models without a closed-form transition density, and propose reformulating such models over their latent noise variables rather than their latent state variables. In doing so the tractable noise density…

In this paper we consider sparse and identifiable linear latent variable (factor) and linear Bayesian network models for parsimonious analysis of multivariate data. We propose a computationally efficient method for joint parameter and model…

The Kalman filter and Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS) smoother are optimal for state estimation in linear dynamic systems. With nonlinear systems, the challenge consists in how to propagate uncertainty through the state transitions and output…

Generalized linear models (GLMs) -- such as logistic regression, Poisson regression, and robust regression -- provide interpretable models for diverse data types. Probabilistic approaches, particularly Bayesian ones, allow coherent…

We present a scalable and robust Bayesian inference method for linear state space models. The method is applied to demand forecasting in the context of a large e-commerce platform, paying special attention to intermittent and bursty target…

The linear noise approximation is commonly used to obtain intrinsic noise statistics for biochemical networks. These estimates are accurate for networks with large numbers of molecules. However it is well known that many biochemical…

In this work we address the analysis of discrete-time models of structured metapopulations subject to environmental stochasticity. Previous works on these models made use of the fact that migrations between the patches can be considered…

Sparse Bayesian Learning (SBL) models are extensively used in signal processing and machine learning for promoting sparsity through hierarchical priors. The hyperparameters in SBL models are crucial for the model's performance, but they are…

We take a Bayesian perspective to illustrate a connection between training speed and the marginal likelihood in linear models. This provides two major insights: first, that a measure of a model's training speed can be used to estimate its…

We present a deep learning model, DE-LSTM, for the simulation of a stochastic process with an underlying nonlinear dynamics. The deep learning model aims to approximate the probability density function of a stochastic process via numerical…

We consider Bayesian inference when only a limited number of noisy log-likelihood evaluations can be obtained. This occurs for example when complex simulator-based statistical models are fitted to data, and synthetic likelihood (SL) method…