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Climate change is increasingly recognized as a driver of health-related outcomes, yet its impact on pharmaceutical demand remains largely understudied. As environmental conditions evolve and extreme weather events intensify, anticipating…
Diet plays a crucial role in health, and understanding the causal effects of dietary patterns is essential for informing public health policy and personalized nutrition strategies. However, causal inference in nutritional epidemiology faces…
It is possible to model vector-borne infection using the classical Ross-Macdonald model. This attempt, however fails in several respects. First, using measured (or estimated) parameters, the model predicts a much greater number of cases…
When animals are transported and pass through customs, some of them may have dangerous infectious diseases. Typically, due to the cost of testing, not all animals are tested: a reasonable selection must be made. How to test effectively…
Stochastic epidemic models, generally more realistic than deterministic counterparts, have often been seen too complex for rigorous mathematical analysis because of level of details it requires to comprehensively capture the dynamics of…
Early, reliable detection of disease outbreaks is a critical problem today. This paper reports an investigation of the use of causal Bayesian networks to model spatio-temporal patterns of a non-contagious disease (respiratory anthrax…
Individual-based models of contagious processes are useful for predicting epidemic trajectories and informing intervention strategies. In such models, the incorporation of contact network information can capture the non-randomness and…
Infectious diseases are caused by pathogenic microorganisms and can spread through different ways. Mathematical models and computational simulation have been used extensively to investigate the transmission and spread of infectious…
Cholera remains a significant public health challenge globally, particularly affecting regions with inadequate water, sanitation, and hygiene infrastructures. This study presents a comprehensive mathematical model extending the classical…
Biological systems are modular, and this modularity affects the evolution of biological systems over time and in different environments. We here develop a theory for the dynamics of evolution in a rugged, modular fitness landscape. We show…
Malaria is a mosquito-borne, lethal disease that affects millions and kills hundreds of thousands of people each year. In this paper, we develop a model for allocating malaria interventions across geographic regions and time, subject to…
Seasonal variations in the incidence of infectious diseases are a well-established phenomenon, driven by factors such as climate changes, social behaviors, and ecological interactions that influence host susceptibility and transmission…
A comparative stochastic and deterministic study of a family of SEIRS epidemic dynamic models for malaria is presented. The family type is determined by the qualitative behavior of the nonlinear incidence rates of the disease. Furthermore,…
The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…
The Bayesian analysis of infectious disease surveillance data from multiple locations typically involves building and fitting a spatio-temporal model of how the disease spreads in the structured population. Here we present new generally…
Motivated by analogies between the spreading of human-to-human infections and of chemical processes, we develop a comprehensive model that accounts both for infection and for transport. In this analogy, the three different populations of…
Bacteria populations rely on mechanisms such as quorum sensing to coordinate complex tasks that cannot be achieved by a single bacterium. Quorum sensing is used to measure the local bacteria population density, and it controls cooperation…
The spread of infectious diseases is often influenced by human mobility across different geographical regions. Although numerous studies have investigated how diseases like SARS and COVID-19 spread from China to various global locations,…
Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in…
Reliable models of the thermodynamic properties of materials are critical for industrially relevant applications that require a good understanding of equilibrium phase diagrams, thermal and chemical transport, and microstructure evolution.…