Related papers: A note on the gambling team method

We introduce the Hilbert-Galton board as a variant of the classical Galton board. Balls fall into a row of bins at a rate depending on the bin, and at random times, each bin gets shifted one unit to the right and an empty bin is added to…

We introduce the possibility of default in the mean field game of mutual holding of Djete and Touzi [11]. This is modeled by introducing absorption at the origin of the equity process. We provide an explicit solution of this mean field…

Parrondo's paradox arises in sequences of games in which a winning expectation may be obtained by playing the games in a random order, even though each game in the sequence may be lost when played individually. We present a suitable version…

The well-known Linear Chain Trick (LCT) allows modelers to derive mean field ODEs that assume gamma (Erlang) distributed passage times, by transitioning individuals sequentially through a chain of sub-states. The time spent in these states…

We examine the Markovian properties of coalition bargaining games, in particular, the case where past rejected proposals cannot be repeated. We propose a Markovian embedding with filtrations to render the sates Markovian and thus, fit into…

We estimate the mixing time of the a nonreversible finite Markov chain called Repeated Balls-into-Bins (RBB) process. This process is a discrete time conservative interacting particle system with parallel updates. Place initially in $L$…

We present a theoretical analysis of the Elo rating system, a popular method for ranking skills of players in an online setting. In particular, we study Elo under the Bradley--Terry--Luce model and, using techniques from Markov chain…

Markov decision process (MDP) is a decision making framework where a decision maker is interested in maximizing the expected discounted value of a stream of rewards received at future stages at various states which are visited according to…

Rao and Teh (2013) introduced an efficient MCMC algorithm for sampling from the posterior distribution of a hidden Markov jump process. The algorithm is based on the idea of sampling virtual jumps. In the present paper we show that the…

We show that the transition probability of the Markoc chain $(G(j,1),...,G(j,n))_{j\ge 1}$, where the $G(i,j)'s$ are certain directed last-passage times, is given by a determinant of a special form. An analogous formula has recently been…

We consider in this paper a stochastic process that mixes in time, according to a nonobserved stationary Markov selection process, two separate sources of randomness: i) a stationary process which distribution is accessible (gold standard);…

The spectral gap $\gamma$ of a finite, ergodic, and reversible Markov chain is an important parameter measuring the asymptotic rate of convergence. In applications, the transition matrix $P$ may be unknown, yet one sample of the chain up to…

This study presents a rigorous mathematical approach to the optimization of round and betting policies in Blackjack, using Markov Decision Processes (MDP) and Expected Utility Theory. The analysis considers a direct confrontation between a…

This paper studies a new and more general axiomatization than one presented previously for preference on likelihood gambles. Likelihood gambles describe actions in a situation where a decision maker knows multiple probabilistic models and a…

Inspired by applications in sports where the skill of players or teams competing against each other varies over time, we propose a probabilistic model of pairwise-comparison outcomes that can capture a wide range of time dynamics. We…

This paper studies theory and inference related to a class of time series models that incorporates nonlinear dynamics. It is assumed that the observations follow a one-parameter exponential family of distributions given an accompanying…

Performing numerical integration when the integrand itself cannot be evaluated point-wise is a challenging task that arises in statistical analysis, notably in Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihood functions. Markov…

Given a set of snapshots from a temporal network we develop, analyze, and experimentally validate a so-called network interpolation scheme. Our method allows us to build a plausible, albeit random, sequence of graphs that transition between…

In this paper we consider the problem of sampling from the low-temperature exponential random graph model (ERGM). The usual approach is via Markov chain Monte Carlo, but Bhamidi et al. showed that any local Markov chain suffers from an…

Predictability of behavior has emerged an an important characteristic in many fields including biology, medicine, and marketing. Behavior can be recorded as a sequence of actions performed by an individual over a given time period. This…