Related papers: A Probabilistic Approach to Risk Mapping for Mt. E…
We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…
The main aim of the present work is to improve the quality of the Etna volcanic ash fallout forecasts through the optimization of an integrated simulation system based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the WRF…
The number of active volcanoes and its latitudinal extent is likely to be related to the magnitude of internal heat in rocky planets. A critical value of internal heat may require in these planets to sustain volcanic activity and the…
Forecasting volcanic eruptions remains a formidable challenge due to the inherent complexity and variability of volcanic processes. A key source of uncertainty arises from the sporadic nature of volcanic unrest, which is often characterised…
From biotechnology to cyber-risks, most extreme technological risks cannot be reliably estimated from historical statistics. Therefore, engineers resort to predictive methods, such as fault/event trees in the framework of probabilistic…
The seismic potential of any regional seismogenic area is analyzed in terms of the "open physical system" inflow - outflow energy balance model (Thanassoulas, 2008, Part - I). Following the magnitude determination method presented by…
The short time behavior of nucleation probabilities is studied by representing nucleation as diffusion in a potential well with escape over a barrier. If initially all growing nuclei start at the bottom of the well, the first nucleation…
Extreme events such as natural and economic disasters leave lasting impacts on society and motivate the analysis of extremes from data. While classical statistical tools based on Gaussian distributions focus on average behaviour and can…
Explosive eruptions are the surface manifestation of dynamics that involve transfer of magma from the underground regions of magma accumulation. Evidence of the involvement of compositionally different magmas from different reservoirs is…
The inter-event time, IET, is sometimes used as a basis for prediction of large earthquakes. It is the case when theoretical analysis of prediction is possible. Quite recently a specific IET- model was suggested for dynamic probabilistic…
The cellular automaton model of Piegari, Di Maio, Scandone and Milano, J. Volc. Geoth. Res., 202, 22-28 (2011) is extended to include magma-induced stress (i.e. a local magma-related augmentation of the stress field). This constitutes a…
The decryption of the temporal sequence of volcanic eruptions is a key step in better anticipating future events. Volcanic activity is the result of a complex interaction between internal and external processes, with time scales spanning…
On 1 August 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched a prospective and comparative earthquake predictability experiment in Italy. The goal of the CSEP-Italy experiment is to test earthquake…
Space weather events such as solar flares can be harmful for life and infrastructure on earth or in near-earth orbit. In this paper we employ extreme value theory (EVT) to model extreme solar flare events; EVT offers the appropriate tools…
For the first time a statistical analysis of oil spill beaching is applied to the whole Mediterranean Sea. A series of probability maps of beaching in case of an oil spill incident are proposed as a complementary tool to vulnerability…
We present a model for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m > 4.95 in Italy. The model, a slightly modified version of the one proposed for California by Helmstetter et al. (2007) and Werner et al. (2010),…
A framework for the theoretical and analytical understanding of the impact crater-size frequency distribution is developed and applied to observed data from Mars and Earth. The analitical model derived gives the crater population,N, as a…
The Himalayan region, including Nepal, is prone to frequent and large earthquakes. Accurate forecasting of these earthquakes is crucial for minimizing loss of life and damage to infrastructure. In this study, we propose various time-scaled…
We report an empirical determination of the probability density functions P(r) of the number r of earthquakes in finite space-time windows for the California catalog, over fixed spatial boxes 5 x 5 km^2 and time intervals dt =1, 10, 100 and…
Power-law type probability density functions spanning several orders of magnitude are found for different avalanche properties. We propose a methodology to overcome empirical constrains that limit the power-law range for the distributions…