Related papers: Potential multiple steady-states in the long-term …
The magnitude of the biotic enhancement of weathering (BEW) has profound implications for the long-term carbon cycle. The BEW ratio is defined as how much faster the silicate weathering carbon sink is under biotic conditions than under…
Carbon-dioxide (CO2) is the main contributor to anthropogenic global warming, and the timing of its peak concentration in the atmosphere is likely to govern the timing of maximum radiative forcing. It is well-known that dynamics of…
While one can unequivocally identify past climate transitions, we lack comprehensive knowledge about their underlying mechanisms and timescales. Our study employs a dimensional analysis of benthic stable isotope records to uncover, across…
Changes that occur on our planet can be tracked back to one of two energy sources: the sun and the Earth's internal energy. The motion of tectonic plates, volcanism, mountain building and the reshaping of our planet's surface over geologic…
The theory of alternative stable states and tipping points has garnered substantial attention in the last several decades. It predicts potential critical transitions from one ecosystem state to a completely different state under increasing…
We do several simple calculations and measurements in an effort to gain understanding of global warming and the carbon cycle. Some conclusions are interesting: (i) There has been global warming since the end of the "little ice age" around…
The instability with respect to global glaciation is a fundamental property of the climate system caused by the positive ice-albedo feedback. The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at which this Snowball bifurcation occurs changes…
From the Archean toward the Proterozoic, the Earth's atmosphere underwent a major shift from anoxic to oxic conditions, around 2.4 to 2.1 Gyr, known as the Great Oxidation Event (GOE). This rapid transition may be related to an atmospheric…
For decades, scientists have tried to explain the evidence for fluvial activity on early Mars, but a consensus has yet to emerge regarding the mechanism for producing it. One hypothesis suggests early Mars was warmed by a thick greenhouse…
Unconstrained CO2 emission from fossil fuel burning has been the dominant cause of observed anthropogenic global warming. The amounts of "proven" and potential fossil fuel reserves are uncertain and debated. Regardless of the true values,…
The strength of mid-latitude storm tracks shapes weather and climate phenomena in the extra-tropics, as these storm tracks control the daily to multi-decadal variability of precipitation, temperature and winds. By the end of this century,…
Various climate states at high obliquity are realized for a range of stellar irradiance using a dynamical atmosphere-ocean-sea ice climate model in an Aquaplanet configuration. Three stable climate states are obtained that differ in the…
Earth's climate can be understood as a dynamical system that changes due to external forcing and internal couplings. Essential climate variables, such as surface air temperature, describe this dynamics. Our current interglacial, the…
This study presents a statistical time-domain approach for identifying transitions between climate states, referred to as breakpoints, using well-established econometric tools. We analyze a 67.1 million year record of the oxygen isotope…
It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that…
State-space systems encompass a broad class of algorithms used for modeling and forecasting time series. For such systems to be effective, two objectives must be met: (i) accurate point forecasts of the time series must be produced, and…
The Late Pleistocene Antarctic temperature variation curve is decomposed into two parts: cyclic and stochastic. These two parts represent different but tightly interconnected processes and also represent two different types of…
Volcanism is a major and long-term source of volatile elements such as C and H to Earth's atmosphere, likely has been to Venus's atmosphere, and may be for exoplanets. Models simulating volcanic growth of atmospheres often make one of two…
This paper investigates the implications of the future continuation of the demonstrated past (1960-2012) strong correlation between first-difference atmospheric CO2 and global surface temperature. It does this, for the period from the…
Our present-day atmosphere is often used as an analog for potentially habitable exoplanets, but Earth's atmosphere has changed dramatically throughout its 4.5 billion year history. For example, molecular oxygen is abundant in the atmosphere…