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Biased stochastic estimators, such as finite-differences for noisy gradient estimation, often contain parameters that need to be properly chosen to balance impacts from the bias and the variance. While the optimal order of these parameters…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-14 Henry Lam , Xinyu Zhang , Xuhui Zhang

Discrimination and calibration represent two important properties of survival analysis, with the former assessing the model's ability to accurately rank subjects and the latter evaluating the alignment of predicted outcomes with actual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Shi-ang Qi , Yakun Yu , Russell Greiner

The usual parametric models for survival data are of the following form. Some parametrically specified hazard rate $\alpha(s,\theta)$ is assumed for possibly censored random life times $X_1^0,\ldots,X_n^0$; one observes only…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-25 Nils Lid Hjort

Fitting models to data is an important part of the practice of science. Advances in machine learning have made it possible to fit more -- and more complex -- models, but have also exacerbated a problem: when multiple models fit the data…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-27 Alexandre René , André Longtin

We overview Bayesian estimation, hypothesis testing, and model-averaging and illustrate how they benefit parametric survival analysis. We contrast the Bayesian framework to the currently dominant frequentist approach and highlight…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-13 František Bartoš , Frederik Aust , Julia M. Haaf

Stacking is a widely used model averaging technique that asymptotically yields optimal predictions among linear averages. We show that stacking is most effective when model predictive performance is heterogeneous in inputs, and we can…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-29 Yuling Yao , Gregor Pirš , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

Treatment specific survival curves are an important tool to illustrate the treatment effect in studies with time-to-event outcomes. In non-randomized studies, unadjusted estimates can lead to biased depictions due to confounding. Multiple…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-25 Robin Denz , Renate Klaaßen-Mielke , Nina Timmesfeld

Survival analysis is a widely-used technique for analyzing time-to-event data in the presence of censoring. In recent years, numerous survival analysis methods have emerged which scale to large datasets and relax traditional assumptions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-06 Mert Ketenci , Shreyas Bhave , Noémie Elhadad , Adler Perotte

This paper proposes consistent estimators for transformation parameters in semiparametric models. The problem is to find the optimal transformation into the space of models with a predetermined regression structure like additive or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Oliver Linton , Stefan Sperlich , Ingrid Van Keilegom

Histopathology-based survival modelling has two major hurdles. Firstly, a well-performing survival model has minimal clinical application if it does not contribute to the stratification of a cancer patient cohort into different risk groups,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-07-12 Hassan Muhammad , Chensu Xie , Carlie S. Sigel , Michael Doukas , Lindsay Alpert , William R. Jarnagin , Amber Simpson , Thomas J. Fuchs

Marginal structural models are a popular method for estimating causal effects in the presence of time-varying exposures. In spite of their popularity, no scalable non-parametric estimator exist for marginal structural models with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-30 Axel Martin , Michele Santacatterina , Iván Díaz

We study Bayesian linear regression models with skew-symmetric scale mixtures of normal error distributions. These kinds of models can be used to capture departures from the usual assumption of normality of the errors in terms of heavy…

Applications · Statistics 2016-01-12 Francisco J. Rubio , Marc G. Genton

Complex biological processes are usually experimented along time among a collection of individuals. Longitudinal data are then available and the statistical challenge is to better understand the underlying biological mechanisms. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Pierre Barbillon , Célia Barthélémy , Adeline Samson

Tempered stable distributions are frequently used in financial applications (e.g., for option pricing) in which the tails of stable distributions would be too heavy. Given the non-explicit form of the probability density function,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-08 Till Massing

Decision trees and their ensembles are endowed with a rich set of diagnostic tools for ranking and screening variables in a predictive model. Despite the widespread use of tree based variable importance measures, pinning down their…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-14 Jason M. Klusowski , Peter M. Tian

Balanced representation learning methods have been applied successfully to counterfactual inference from observational data. However, approaches that account for survival outcomes are relatively limited. Survival data are frequently…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-04 Paidamoyo Chapfuwa , Serge Assaad , Shuxi Zeng , Michael J. Pencina , Lawrence Carin , Ricardo Henao

Survival analysis is a type of semi-supervised ranking task where the target output (the survival time) is often right-censored. Utilizing this information is a challenge because it is not obvious how to correctly incorporate these censored…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-12 Margaux Luck , Tristan Sylvain , Joseph Paul Cohen , Heloise Cardinal , Andrea Lodi , Yoshua Bengio

To better understand effects of exposure to food allergens, food challenge studies are designed to slowly increase the dose of an allergen delivered to allergic individuals until an objective reaction occurs. These dose-to-failure studies…

Applications · Statistics 2019-08-30 Matthew W. Wheeler , Joost Westerhout , Joe L. Baumert , Benjamin C. Remington

Joint models are well suited to modelling linked data from laboratories and health registers. However, there are few examples of joint models that allow for (a) multiple markers, (b) multiple survival outcomes (including terminal events,…

A basic issue in both teaching of and practice of statistics is the interplay between modelling assumptions and inference performance. The general message conveyed is that stronger assumptions lead to better statistical performance of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-20 Morten Byholt , Nils Lid Hjort