Related papers: Hidden regular variation of moving average process…

We study a class of stochastic models of mass transport on discrete vertex set $V$. For these models, a one-parameter family of homogeneous product measures $\otimes_{i\in V} \nu_\theta$ is reversible. We prove that the set of mixtures of…

We consider a class of multiplicative processes which, added with stochastic reset events, give origin to stationary distributions with power-law tails -- ubiquitous in the statistics of social, economic, and ecological systems. Our main…

We study the extremes of multivariate regularly varying random fields. The crucial tools in our study are the tail field and the spectral field, notions that extend the tail and spectral processes of Basrak and Segers (2009). The spatial…

Unraveling the reasons behind the remarkable success and exceptional generalization capabilities of deep neural networks presents a formidable challenge. Recent insights from random matrix theory, specifically those concerning the spectral…

Recently a functional limit theorem for sums of moving averages with random coefficients and i.i.d. heavy tailed innovations has been obtained under the assumption that all partial sums of the series of coefficients are a.s. bounded between…

Risk assessment for rare events is essential for understanding systemic stability in complex systems. As rare events are typically highly correlated, it is important to study heavy-tailed multivariate distributions of the relevant…

Multivariate stochastic recurrence equations (SREs) are investigated when coefficients are triangular matrices. If coefficient matrices of SREs have all strictly positive elements, the Kesten's classical result yields solutions with…

Recent studies have shown that heavy tails can emerge in stochastic optimization and that the heaviness of the tails have links to the generalization error. While these studies have shed light on interesting aspects of the generalization…

For the directed edge preferential attachment network growth model studied by Bollobas et al. (2003) and Krapivsky and Redner (2001), we prove that the joint distribution of in-degree and out-degree has jointly regularly varying tails.…

It has repeatedly been observed that loss minimization by stochastic gradient descent (SGD) leads to heavy-tailed distributions of neural network parameters. Here, we analyze a continuous diffusion approximation of SGD, called homogenized…

We study a particular class of moving average processes which possess a property called localisability. This means that, at any given point, they admit a ``tangent process'', in a suitable sense. We give general conditions on the kernel g…

We consider a Markov chain on $R^+$ with asymptotically zero drift and finite second moments of jumps which is positive recurrent. A power-like asymptotic behaviour of the invariant tail distribution is proven; such a heavy-tailed invariant…

Max-autogressive moving average (Max-ARMA) processes are powerful tools for modelling time series data with heavy-tailed behaviour; these are a non-linear version of the popular autoregressive moving average models. River flow data…

Let $M_n= \fsu X1n$ be a sum of independent random variables such that $ X_k\leq 1$, $\E X_k =0$ and $\E X_k^2=\s_k^2$ for all $k$. Hoeffding 1963, Theorem 3, proved that $$\P{M_n \geq nt}\leq H^n(t,p),\quad H(t,p)= \bgl(1+qt/p\bgr)^{p +qt}…

We present an analytical technique to compute the probability of rare events in which the largest eigenvalue of a random matrix is atypically large (i.e.\ the right tail of its large deviations). The results also transfer to the left tail…

We present sharp tail asymptotics for the density and the distribution function of linear combinations of correlated log-normal random variables, that is, exponentials of components of a correlated Gaussian vector. The asymptotic behavior…

We obtain decay rates of probabilities of tails of polynomials in several independent random variables with heavy tails and derive stable limit theorems for nonconventional sums of such polynomials

We examine random variables in the power law/regularly varying class with stochastic tail exponent, the exponent $\alpha$ having its own distribution. We show the effect of stochasticity of $\alpha$ on the expectation and higher moments of…

This paper introduces a new parsimonious structure for mixture of autoregressive models. the weighting coefficients are determined through latent random variables, following a hidden Markov model. We propose a dynamic programming algorithm…

For a strictly stationary sequence of nonnegative regularly varying random variables $(X_{n})$ we study functional weak convergence of partial maxima processes $M_{n}(t) = \bigvee_{i=1}^{\lfloor nt \rfloor}X_{i},\,t \in [0,1]$ in the space…