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We go through the many considerations involved in fitting a model to data, using as an example the fit of a straight line to a set of points in a two-dimensional plane. Standard weighted least-squares fitting is only appropriate when there…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2010-08-30 David W. Hogg , Jo Bovy , Dustin Lang

Firm disclosures about future prospects are crucial for corporate valuation and compliance with global regulations, such as the EU's MAR and the US's SEC Rule 10b-5 and RegFD. To comply with disclosure obligations, issuers must identify…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-21 Moritz Scherrmann , Ralf Elsas

We consider the problem of predicting a response variable from a set of covariates on a data set that differs in distribution from the training data. Causal parameters are optimal in terms of predictive accuracy if in the new distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-12 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Nicolai Meinshausen , Peter Bühlmann , Jonas Peters

Regression analysis is an important instrument to determine the effect of the explanatory variables on response variables. When outliers and bias errors are present, the standard weighted least squares estimator may perform poorly. For this…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-11 Justo Puerto , Alberto Torrejon

Imbalanced problems can arise in different real-world situations, and to address this, certain strategies in the form of resampling or balancing algorithms are proposed. This issue has largely been studied in the context of classification,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Juscimara G. Avelino , George D. C. Cavalcanti , Rafael M. O. Cruz

This paper analyzes the information disclosure problems originated in economics through the lens of information theory. Such problems are radically different from the conventional communication paradigms in information theory since they…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-15 Emrah Akyol , Cedric Langbort , Tamer Basar

Current progress in artificial intelligence is centered around so-called large language models that consist of neural networks processing long sequences of high-dimensional vectors called tokens. Statistical physics provides powerful tools…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-11-13 Vittorio Erba , Emanuele Troiani , Luca Biggio , Antoine Maillard , Lenka Zdeborová

The dramatic growth of big datasets presents a new challenge to data storage and analysis. Data reduction, or subsampling, that extracts useful information from datasets is a crucial step in big data analysis. We propose an orthogonal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-01 Lin Wang , Jake Elmstedt , Weng Kee Wong , Hongquan Xu

An important challenge in robust machine learning is when training data is provided by strategic sources who may intentionally report erroneous data for their own benefit. A line of work at the intersection of machine learning and mechanism…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-12-24 Eric Balkanski , Cherlin Zhu

A common approach of system identification and machine learning is to generate a model by using training data to predict the test data instances as accurate as possible. Nonetheless, concerns about data privacy are increasingly raised, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-18 Jaron Skovsted Gundersen , Bulut Kuskonmaz , Rafael Wisniewski

This paper investigates the game theory of resource-allocation situations where the "first come, first serve" heuristic creates inequitable, asymmetric benefits to the players. Specifically, this problem is formulated as a Generalized Nash…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-06-16 Nathan Boyd , Steven Gabriel , George Rest , Tom Dumm

The advent of online genomic data-sharing services has sought to enhance the accessibility of large genomic datasets by allowing queries about genetic variants, such as summary statistics, aiding care providers in distinguishing between…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Tao Zhang , Rajagopal Venkatesaramani , Rajat K. De , Bradley A. Malin , Yevgeniy Vorobeychik

Preserving the privacy of individual databases when carrying out statistical calculations has a long history in statistics and had been the focus of much recent attention in machine learning In this paper, we present a protocol for…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2011-12-01 Rob Hall , Yuval Nardi , Stephen Fienberg

Consider a regression model with infinitely many parameters and time series errors. We are interested in choosing weights for averaging across generalized least squares (GLS) estimators obtained from a set of approximating models. However,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-05 Tzu-Chang F. Cheng , Ching-Kang Ing , Shu-Hui Yu

Measuring the accuracy of cross-sectional predictions is a subjective problem. Generally, this problem is avoided. In contrast, this paper confronts subjectivity up front by eliciting an impartial decision-maker's preferences. These…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-30 Charles D. Coleman

Modern technologies are generating ever-increasing amounts of data. Making use of these data requires methods that are both statistically sound and computationally efficient. Typically, the statistical and computational aspects are treated…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-15 Mahsa Taheri , Néhémy Lim , Johannes Lederer

Regression analysis is a standard supervised machine learning method used to model an outcome variable in terms of a set of predictor variables. In most real-world applications we do not know the true value of the outcome variable being…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-10 Henri Tiittanen , Emilia Oikarinen , Andreas Henelius , Kai Puolamäki

The analytic characterization of the high-dimensional behavior of optimization for Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) with Gaussian data has been a central focus in statistics and probability in recent years. While convex cases, such as the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-13 Matteo Vilucchio , Yatin Dandi , Matéo Pirio Rossignol , Cedric Gerbelot , Florent Krzakala

Sparse model estimation is a topic of high importance in modern data analysis due to the increasing availability of data sets with a large number of variables. Another common problem in applied statistics is the presence of outliers in the…

Applications · Statistics 2025-02-03 Andreas Alfons , Christophe Croux , Sarah Gelper

We study high-dimensional least-squares regression within a subgaussian statistical learning framework with heterogeneous noise. It includes $s$-sparse and $r$-low-rank least-squares regression when a fraction $\epsilon$ of the labels are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-01 Philip Thompson