Related papers: Multiple Hidden Markov Models for Categorical Time…

Logical hidden Markov models (LOHMMs) upgrade traditional hidden Markov models to deal with sequences of structured symbols in the form of logical atoms, rather than flat characters. This note formally introduces LOHMMs and presents…

In this work, we extend the idea of Quantum Markov chains [S. Gudder. Quantum Markov chains. J. Math. Phys., 49(7), 2008] in order to propose Quantum Hidden Markov Models (QHMMs). For that, we use the notions of Transition Operation…

This work proposes a multi-agent filtering algorithm over graphs for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs), which can be used for sequential state estimation or for tracking opinion formation over dynamic social networks. We show that…

Cycles are fundamental to human health and behavior. However, modeling cycles in time series data is challenging because in most cases the cycles are not labeled or directly observed and need to be inferred from multidimensional…

Ecological systems can often be characterised by changes among a finite set of underlying states pertaining to individuals, populations, communities, or entire ecosystems through time. Owing to the inherent difficulty of empirical field…

Dynamic networks exhibit temporal patterns that vary across different time scales, all of which can potentially affect processes that take place on the network. However, most data-driven approaches used to model time-varying networks…

In unsupervised classification, Hidden Markov Models (HMM) are used to account for a neighborhood structure between observations. The emission distributions are often supposed to belong to some parametric family. In this paper, a…

Labeled continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) describe processes subject to random timing and partial observability. In applications such as runtime monitoring, we must incorporate past observations. The timing of these observations matters…

This paper is concerned with the computational complexity of learning the Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Although HMMs are some of the most widely used tools in sequential and time series modeling, they are cryptographically hard to learn in…

Hidden Markov Models are widely used in classical computer science to model stochastic processes with a wide range of applications. This paper concerns the quantum analogues of these machines --- so-called Hidden Quantum Markov Models…

We propose the segmented iHMM (siHMM), a hierarchical infinite hidden Markov model (iHMM) that supports a simple, efficient inference scheme. The siHMM is well suited to segmentation problems, where the goal is to identify points at which a…

A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a common statistical model which is widely used for analysis of biological sequence data and other sequential phenomena. In the present paper we show how HMMs can be extended with side-constraints and present…

In this paper we develop a novel hidden Markov graphical model to investigate time-varying interconnectedness between different financial markets. To identify conditional correlation structures under varying market conditions and…

Predicting future operational risk losses gives rise to a significant challenge due to the heterogeneous and time-dependent structures present in real-world data. Furthermore, stress test exercises require examining the relationship with…

This paper studies the robustness of quasi-maximum-likelihood (QML) estimation in hidden Markov models (HMMs) when the regime-switching structure is misspecified. Specifically, we examine the case where the true data-generating process…

We present an efficient exact algorithm for estimating state sequences from outputs (or observations) in imprecise hidden Markov models (iHMM), where both the uncertainty linking one state to the next, and that linking a state to its…

Many real-world problems encountered in several disciplines deal with the modeling of time-series containing different underlying dynamical regimes, for which probabilistic approaches are very often employed. In this paper we describe…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and conditional random fields (CRFs) are two popular techniques for modeling sequential data. Inference algorithms designed over CRFs and HMMs allow estimation of the state sequence given the observations. In…

In probability theory, the independence is a very fundamental concept, but with a little mystery. People can always easily manipulate it logistically but not geometrically, especially when it comes to the independence relationships among…

In the context of multilevel longitudinal data, where sample units are collected in clusters, an important aspect that should be accounted for is the unobserved heterogeneity between sample units and between clusters. For this aim we…