Related papers: Stochastic epidemics in growing populations
Understanding the timing of the peak of a disease outbreak forms an important part of epidemic forecasting. In many cases, such information is essential for planning increased hospital bed demand and for designing of public health…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…
The spread of infectious diseases near the epidemic threshold is investigated. Scaling laws for the size and the duration of outbreaks originating from a single infected individual in a large susceptible population are obtained. The maximal…
Pairwise models are used widely to model epidemic spread on networks. These include the modelling of susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemics on regular networks and extensions to SIS dynamics and contact tracing on more exotic networks…
A stochastic SIR epidemic model taking into account the heterogeneity of the spatial environment is constructed. The deterministic model is given by a partial differential equation and the stochastic one by a space-time jump Markov process.…
In conducting preliminary analysis during an epidemic, data on reported disease cases offer key information in guiding the direction to the in-depth analysis. Models for growth and transmission dynamics are heavily dependent on preliminary…
We introduce a modified SIR model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states susceptible (${\bf S}$), infected (${\bf I}$) or recovered (${\bf R}$). In…
In two previous papers, I introduced SuperSpreader (SS) epidemic models, offered some theoretical discussion of prevention issues, and fitted some models to data derived from published accounts of the ongoing MERS epidemic (concluding that…
In this work we study the stability properties of the equilibrium points of deterministic epidemic models with nonconstant population size. Models with nonconstant population have been studied in the past only in particular cases, two of…
A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing…
We introduce and study a model stemming from game theory for the spread of an epidemic throughout a given population. Each agent is allowed to choose an action whose value dictates to what extent they limit their social interactions, if at…
We consider an individual-based SIR stochastic epidemic model in continuous space. The evolution of the epidemic involves the rates of infection and cure of individuals. We assume that individuals move randomly on the two-dimensional torus…
Major advances in public health have resulted from disease prevention. However, prevention of a new infectious disease by vaccination or pharmaceuticals is made difficult by the slow process of vaccine and drug development. We propose an…
The presence of a unique absorbing state in the finite state space of an epidemic process always poses a challenge in the definition of its epidemiological threshold. Without the elimination of the absorbing state of the SIS process we show…
Developing robust, quantitative methods to optimize resource allocations in response to epidemics has the potential to save lives and minimize health care costs. In this paper, we develop and apply a computationally efficient algorithm that…
We study an epidemic model for a constant population by taking into account four compartments of the individuals characterizing their states of health. Each individual is in one of the compartments susceptible (S); incubated - infected yet…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
We consider continuous space-time decay-surge population models which are semi- stochastic processes for which deterministically declining populations, bound to fade away, are rein- vigorated at random times by bursts or surges of random…
We study a stochastic epidemic model consisting of elements (organisms in a community or cells in tissue) with fixed positions, in which damage or disease is transmitted by diffusing agents ("signals") emitted by infected individuals. The…
A random network model which allows for tunable, quite general forms of clustering, degree correlation and degree distribution is defined. The model is an extension of the configuration model, in which stubs (half-edges) are paired to form…