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Related papers: Tail bounds via generic chaining

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We address the choice of the tuning parameter $\lambda$ in $\ell_1$-penalized M-estimation. Our main concern is models which are highly nonlinear, such as the Gaussian mixture model. The number of parameters $p$ is moreover large, possibly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-17 Sara van de Geer

We introduce the \textsc{Tailed-Uniform} proposal distribution for generating training simulations in simulation-based inference. Instead of sampling parameters uniformly within bounded regions, we extend the distribution beyond prior…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-01-27 Chaipat Tirapongprasert , Matthew Ho

Chebyshev's inequality provides an upper bound on the tail probability of a random variable based on its mean and variance. While tight, the inequality has been criticized for only being attained by pathological distributions that abuse the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-10-16 Ernst Roos , Ruud Brekelmans , Wouter van Eekelen , Dick den Hertog , Johan van Leeuwaarden

In this paper, we consider the problem of stochastic optimization under a bandit feedback model. We generalize the GP-UCB algorithm [Srinivas and al., 2012] to arbitrary kernels and search spaces. To do so, we use a notion of localized…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-10-20 Emile Contal , Cédric Malherbe , Nicolas Vayatis

In general, obtaining the exact steady-state distribution of queue lengths is not feasible. Therefore, we establish bounds for the tail probabilities of queue lengths. Specifically, we examine queueing systems under Heavy-Traffic (HT)…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-21 Prakirt Raj Jhunjhunwala , Daniela Hurtado-Lange , Siva Theja Maguluri

In this paper, we provide novel optimal (or near optimal) convergence rates for a clipped version of the stochastic subgradient method. We consider nonsmooth convex problems over possibly unbounded domains, under heavy-tailed noise that…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-04-21 Daniela Angela Parletta , Andrea Paudice , Saverio Salzo

We study sequential prediction of real-valued, arbitrary and unknown sequences under the squared error loss as well as the best parametric predictor out of a large, continuous class of predictors. Inspired by recent results from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-01-24 N. Denizcan Vanli , Suleyman S. Kozat

Using tail bounds, we introduce a new probabilistic condition for function estimation in stochastic derivative-free optimization which leads to a reduction in the number of samples and eases algorithmic analyses. Moreover, we develop simple…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-06-16 Francesco Rinaldi , Luis Nunes Vicente , Damiano Zeffiro

We propose a new approach to apply the chaining technique in conjunction with information-theoretic measures to bound the generalization error of machine learning algorithms. Different from the deterministic chaining approach based on…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-01-31 Ruida Zhou , Chao Tian , Tie Liu

In this article, we review our recently introduced methods for obtaining strictly positive lower bounds on the top Lyapunov exponent of high-dimensional, stochastic differential equations such as the weakly-damped Lorenz-96 (L96) model or…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-09 Jacob Bedrossian , Alex Blumenthal , Sam Punshon-Smith

This paper extends the standard chaining technique to prove excess risk upper bounds for empirical risk minimization with random design settings even if the magnitude of the noise and the estimates is unbounded. The bound applies to many…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-08 Gábor Balázs , András György , Csaba Szepesvári

Fix a sequence c=(c_1,...,c_n) of non-negative integers with sum n-1. We say a rooted tree T has child sequence c if it is possible to order the nodes of T as v_1,...,v_n so that for each 1 <= i <= n, v_i has exactly c_i children. Let T be…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-09-22 Louigi Addario-Berry

Given a bounded class of functions G and independent random variables X1, . . . , Xn, we provide an upper bound for the expectation of the supremum of the empirical process over elements of G having a small variance. Our bound applies in…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-08 Yannick Baraud

We provide a criterion for establishing lower bounds on the rate of convergence in $f$-variation of a continuous-time ergodic Markov process to its invariant measure. The criterion consists of novel super- and submartingale conditions for…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-16 Miha Brešar , Aleksandar Mijatović

In this note, we investigate the behaviour of suprema for band-limited spherical random fields. We prove upper and lower bound for the expected values of these suprema, by means of metric entropy arguments and discrete approximations; we…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-27 Domenico Marinucci , Sreekar Vadlamani

A common bottleneck in evaluating extremal performance measures is that, due to their very nature, tail data are often very limited. The conventional approach selects the best probability distribution from tail data using parametric…

Computation · Statistics 2018-01-03 Henry Lam , Clementine Mottet

Gaussian process regression (GPR) is a popular nonparametric Bayesian method that provides predictive uncertainty estimates and is widely used in safety-critical applications. While prior research has introduced various uncertainty bounds,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-05 Junyi Liu , Stanley Kok

This paper addresses the advancement of probability tail bound analysis, a crucial statistical tool for assessing the probability of large deviations of random variables from their expected values. Traditional tail bounds, such as Markov's,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-22 Shih-Yu Chang

We derive some key extremal features for $k$th order Markov chains that can be used to understand how the process moves between an extreme state and the body of the process. The chains are studied given that there is an exceedance of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-27 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Adrian Casey , Jonathan A. Tawn

In this paper we consider the problem of obtaining sharp bounds for the performance of temporal difference (TD) methods with linear function approximation for policy evaluation in discounted Markov decision processes. We show that a simple…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-18 Sergey Samsonov , Daniil Tiapkin , Alexey Naumov , Eric Moulines