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This study addresses the problem of off-policy evaluation (OPE) from dependent samples obtained via the bandit algorithm. The goal of OPE is to evaluate a new policy using historical data obtained from behavior policies generated by the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-15 Masahiro Kato

In discrete choice panel data, estimation of average effects is crucial for quantifying the effect of covariates, and for policy evaluation and counterfactual analysis. However, in short panels with individual-specific effects, challenges…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-27 Cavit Pakel , Martin Weidner

Information-theoretic Bayesian regret bounds of Russo and Van Roy capture the dependence of regret on prior uncertainty. However, this dependence is through entropy, which can become arbitrarily large as the number of actions increases. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-09 Shi Dong , Benjamin Van Roy

We prove new probabilistic upper bounds on generalization error of complex classifiers that are combinations of simple classifiers. Such combinations could be implemented by neural networks or by voting methods of combining the classifiers,…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Vladimir Koltchinskii , Dmitry Panchenko

Using techniques from Poisson approximation, we prove explicit error bounds on the number of permutations that avoid any pattern. Most generally, we bound the total variation distance between the joint distribution of pattern occurrences…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2023-06-22 Harry Crane , Stephen DeSalvo

We develop a data-driven information-theoretic framework for sharp partial identification of causal effects under unmeasured confounding. Existing approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions, such as bounded or discrete outcomes;…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-24 Yonghan Jung , Bogyeong Kang

We develop a general framework for conducting inference on the mean of dependent random variables given constraints on their dependency graph. We establish the consistency of an oracle variance estimator of the mean when the dependency…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-02 Peter M. Aronow , Forrest W. Crawford , José R. Zubizarreta

Randomness in scientific estimation is generally assumed to arise from unmeasured or uncontrolled factors. However, when combining subjective probability estimates, heterogeneity stemming from people's cognitive or information diversity is…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-28 Ville Satopää , Robin Pemantle , Lyle Ungar

We provide optimal lower bounds for two well-known parameter estimation (also known as statistical estimation) tasks in high dimensions with approximate differential privacy. First, we prove that for any $\alpha \le O(1)$, estimating the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-05 Shyam Narayanan

Ensemble sampling serves as a practical approximation to Thompson sampling when maintaining an exact posterior distribution over model parameters is computationally intractable. In this paper, we establish a regret bound that ensures…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-02 Chao Qin , Zheng Wen , Xiuyuan Lu , Benjamin Van Roy

The bias of the sample means of the arms in multi-armed bandits is an important issue in adaptive data analysis that has recently received considerable attention in the literature. Existing results relate in precise ways the sign and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-24 Jaehyeok Shin , Aaditya Ramdas , Alessandro Rinaldo

Adaptive data analysis is frequently criticized for its pessimistic generalization guarantees. The source of these pessimistic bounds is a model that permits arbitrary, possibly adversarial analysts that optimally use information to bias…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-14 Tijana Zrnic , Moritz Hardt

We revisit the problem of releasing the sample mean of bounded samples in a dataset, privately, under user-level $\varepsilon$-differential privacy (DP). We aim to derive the optimal method of preprocessing data samples, within a canonical…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-01-12 V. Arvind Rameshwar , Anshoo Tandon

For functions of independent random variables, various upper and lower variance bounds are revisited in diverse settings. These are then specialized to the Bernoulli, Gaussian, infinitely divisible cases and to Banach space valued random…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-16 Clément Deslandes , Christian Houdré

We establish a connection between the stability of mirror descent and the information ratio by Russo and Van Roy [2014]. Our analysis shows that mirror descent with suitable loss estimators and exploratory distributions enjoys the same…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-28 Tor Lattimore , András György

Stochastic sparse linear bandits offer a practical model for high-dimensional online decision-making problems and have a rich information-regret structure. In this work we explore the use of information-directed sampling (IDS), which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-01 Botao Hao , Tor Lattimore , Wei Deng

We derive bounds on the scope for a confidence band to adapt to the unknown regularity of a nonparametric function that is observed with noise, such as a regression function or density, under the self-similarity condition proposed by Gine…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-07 Timothy B. Armstrong

In this paper, we establish generalization bounds for transductive learning algorithms in the context of information theory and PAC-Bayes, covering both the random sampling and the random splitting setting. First, we show that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Huayi Tang , Yong Liu

We give an approach for characterizing interference by lower bounding the number of units whose outcome depends on selected groups of treated individuals, such as depending on the treatment of others, or others who are at least a certain…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 David Choi

The simplest and most widely applied method for guaranteeing differential privacy is to add instance-independent noise to a statistic of interest that is scaled to its global sensitivity. However, global sensitivity is a worst-case notion…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-10 Mark Bun , Thomas Steinke