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High-dimensional count data poses significant challenges for statistical analysis, necessitating effective methods that also preserve explainability. We focus on a low rank constrained variant of the Poisson log-normal model, which relates…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Bastien Batardière , Julien Chiquet , Joon Kwon , Julien Stoehr

Annealed importance sampling (AIS) is the gold standard for estimating partition functions or marginal likelihoods, corresponding to importance sampling over a path of distributions between a tractable base and an unnormalized target. While…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-29 Rob Brekelmans , Vaden Masrani , Thang Bui , Frank Wood , Aram Galstyan , Greg Ver Steeg , Frank Nielsen

Importance sampling is a central idea underlying off-policy prediction in reinforcement learning. It provides a strategy for re-weighting samples from a distribution to obtain unbiased estimates under another distribution. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-28 Kristopher De Asis , Eric Graves , Richard S. Sutton

Given a sequence of observations from a discrete-time, finite-state hidden Markov model, we would like to estimate the sampling distribution of a statistic. The bootstrap method is employed to approximate the confidence regions of a…

Computation · Statistics 2009-09-29 Cheng-Der Fuh , Inchi Hu

Importance sampling approximates expectations with respect to a target measure by using samples from a proposal measure. The performance of the method over large classes of test functions depends heavily on the closeness between both…

Computation · Statistics 2016-09-01 Daniel Sanz-Alonso

Bayesian inference for models that have an intractable partition function is known as a doubly intractable problem, where standard Monte Carlo methods are not applicable. The past decade has seen the development of auxiliary variable Monte…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-13 Richard G. Everitt , Dennis Prangle , Philip Maybank , Mark Bell

In recent years, sequential importance sampling (SIS) has been well developed for sampling contingency tables with linear constraints. In this paper, we apply SIS procedure to 2-dimensional Ising models, which give observations of 0-1…

Computation · Statistics 2014-10-17 Jing Xi , Seth Sullivant

In Bayesian inference, we seek to compute information about random variables such as moments or quantiles on the basis of {available data} and prior information. When the distribution of random variables is {intractable}, Monte Carlo (MC)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-06 Alec Koppel , Amrit Singh Bedi , Brian M. Sadler , Victor Elvira

Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) is a popular algorithm used to estimates the intractable marginal likelihood of deep generative models. Although AIS is guaranteed to provide unbiased estimate for any set of hyperparameters, the common…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-11 Shirin Goshtasbpour , Fernando Perez-Cruz

We consider the problem of estimating rare event probabilities, focusing on systems whose evolution is governed by differential equations with uncertain input parameters. If the system dynamics is expensive to compute, standard sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-05 Siddhant Wahal , George Biros

This paper investigates the use of retrospective approximation solution paradigm in solving risk-averse optimization problems effectively via importance sampling (IS). While IS serves as a prominent means for tackling the large sample…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-06-28 Anand Deo , Karthyek Murthy , Tirtho Sarker

Bayesian methods and their implementations by means of sophisticated Monte Carlo techniques have become very popular in signal processing over the last years. Importance Sampling (IS) is a well-known Monte Carlo technique that approximates…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 L. Martino , V. Elvira , G. Camps-Valls

We develop a theoretical framework for studying numerical estimation of lower previsions, generally applicable to two-level Monte Carlo methods, importance sampling methods, and a wide range of other sampling methods one might devise. We…

Computation · Statistics 2018-07-12 Matthias C. M. Troffaes

Importance sampling (IS) consists in biasing samples from a distribution $f$ towards another distribution $g$. Concretely, given samples $X_i$ from $f$, the IS measure is $$\hat{g}_n = \frac{1}{Z_n}\sum_{i=1}^n \frac{g(X_i)}{f(X_i)}…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-29 Simon Coste , Michael Goldman

We propose an importance sampling (IS)-based transport map Hamiltonian Monte Carlo procedure for performing full Bayesian analysis in general nonlinear high-dimensional hierarchical models. Using IS techniques to construct a transport map,…

Computation · Statistics 2019-12-11 Kjartan Kloster Osmundsen , Tore Selland Kleppe , Roman Liesenfeld

Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models (GPLVMs) have become increasingly popular for unsupervised tasks such as dimensionality reduction and missing data recovery due to their flexibility and non-linear nature. An importance-weighted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Jian Xu , Shian Du , Junmei Yang , Qianli Ma , Delu Zeng , John Paisley

Importance sampling algorithms are discussed in detail, with an emphasis on implicit sampling, and applied to data assimilation via particle filters. Implicit sampling makes it possible to use the data to find high-probability samples at…

Computation · Statistics 2015-06-02 Alexandre J. Chorin , Fei Lu , Robert N. Miller , Matthias Morzfeld , Xuemin Tu

Cross-validation under sample selection bias can, in principle, be done by importance-weighting the empirical risk. However, the importance-weighted risk estimator produces sub-optimal hyperparameter estimates in problem settings where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-28 Wouter M. Kouw , Jesse H. Krijthe , Marco Loog

Reliability-oriented sensitivity analysis aims at combining both reliability and sensitivity analyses by quantifying the influence of each input variable of a numerical model on a quantity of interest related to its failure. In particular,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-25 Julien Demange-Chryst , François Bachoc , Jérôme Morio

Importance sampling has been known as a powerful tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimator for rare event simulation. Based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of Monte Carlo estimator within a parametric family, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-02-11 Cheng-Der Fuh , Huei-Wen Teng , Ren-Her Wang