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For any forecasting application, evaluation of forecasts is an important task. For example, in the field of renewable energy sources there is high variability and uncertainty of power production, which makes forecasting and the evaluation…

The aim of change-point detection is to identify behavioral shifts within time series data. This article focuses on scenarios where the data is derived from an inhomogeneous Poisson process or a marked Poisson process. We present a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-07 C. Dion-Blanc , D. Hawat , E. Lebarbier , S. Robin

We present a Bayesian method for multivariate changepoint detection that allows for simultaneous inference on the location of a changepoint and the coefficients of a logistic regression model for distinguishing pre-changepoint data from…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Andrew M. Thomas , Michael Jauch , David S. Matteson

In this paper, the problem of quickly detecting an abrupt change on a stochastic process under Bayesian framework is considered. Different from the classic Bayesian quickest change-point detection problem, this paper considers the case…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-08-24 Jun Geng , Erhan Bayraktar , Lifeng Lai

This article introduces epidemia, an R package for Bayesian, regression-oriented modeling of infectious diseases. The implemented models define a likelihood for all observed data while also explicitly modeling transmission dynamics: an…

Estimating parameters of mixture model has wide applications ranging from classification problems to estimating of complex distributions. Most of the current literature on estimating the parameters of the mixture densities are based on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-23 Yuantong Li , Qi Ma , Sujit K. Ghosh

We introduce the R package ContaminatedMixt, conceived to disseminate the use of mixtures of multivariate contaminated normal distributions as a tool for robust clustering and classification under the common assumption of elliptically…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-14 Antonio Punzo , Angelo Mazza , Paul D. McNicholas

We propose estimation methods for change points in high-dimensional covariance structures with an emphasis on challenging scenarios with missing values. We advocate three imputation like methods and investigate their implications on common…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-26 Malte Londschien , Solt Kovács , Peter Bühlmann

Several statistical approaches based on reproducing kernels have been proposed to detect abrupt changes arising in the full distribution of the observations and not only in the mean or variance. Some of these approaches enjoy good…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-13 Alain Celisse , Guillemette Marot , Morgane Pierre-Jean , Guillem Rigaill

We propose a new technique for consistent estimation of the number and locations of the change-points in the structure of an irregularly spaced time series. The core of the segmentation procedure is the Ensemble Binary Segmentation method…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-24 Karolos K. Korkas

The R package pdfCluster performs cluster analysis based on a nonparametric estimate of the density of the observed variables. After summarizing the main aspects of the methodology, we describe the features and the usage of the package, and…

Computation · Statistics 2013-01-29 Adelchi Azzalini , Giovanna Menardi

We study the multivariate nonparametric change point detection problem, where the data are a sequence of independent $p$-dimensional random vectors whose distributions are piecewise-constant with Lipschitz densities changing at unknown…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-26 Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Yi Yu , Daren Wang , Alessandro Rinaldo

Various R packages have been developed for the non-convex penalized estimation but they can only be applied to the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) or minimax concave penalty (MCP). We develop an R package, entitled ncpen, for the…

Computation · Statistics 2018-11-14 Dongshin Kim , Sangin Lee , Sunghoon Kwon

Split conformal prediction (CP) is arguably the most popular CP method for uncertainty quantification, enjoying both academic interest and widespread deployment. However, the original theoretical analysis of split CP makes the crucial…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-26 Roberto I. Oliveira , Paulo Orenstein , Thiago Ramos , João Vitor Romano

Process monitoring and control requires detection of structural changes in a data stream in real time. This article introduces an efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm designed for learning unknown changepoints in continuous time. The…

Applications · Statistics 2015-09-29 Melissa J. M. Turcotte , Nicholas A. Heard

Change point detection (CPD) aims to locate abrupt property changes in time series data. Recent CPD methods demonstrated the potential of using deep learning techniques, but often lack the ability to identify more subtle changes in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-21 Tim De Ryck , Maarten De Vos , Alexander Bertrand

Given a finite sequence of graphs, e.g., coming from technological, biological, and social networks, the paper proposes a methodology to identify possible changes in stationarity in the stochastic process generating the graphs. In order to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-11 Daniele Zambon , Cesare Alippi , Lorenzo Livi

Recently there has been a surge of interest to deploy confidence set predictions rather than point predictions in machine learning. Unfortunately, the effectiveness of such prediction sets is frequently impaired by distribution shifts in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-14 Kevin Kasa , Zhiyu Zhang , Heng Yang , Graham W. Taylor

Linear and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis are well-known classical methods but can heavily suffer from non-Gaussian distributions and/or contaminated datasets, mainly because of the underlying Gaussian assumption that is not robust. To…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-11 Pierre Houdouin , Frédéric Pascal , Matthieu Jonckheere , Andrew Wang

Change-point detection (CPD) involves identifying distributional changes in a sequence of independent observations. Among nonparametric methods, rank-based methods are attractive due to their robustness and effectiveness and have been…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-13 Doudou Zhou , Hao Chen
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