Related papers: Efficient Continuous-Time Markov Chain Estimation
Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models are ubiquitous in statistics, econometrics, information engineering and signal processing. Particle methods, also known as Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, provide reliable numerical…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is a methodology for sampling approximately from a sequence of probability distributions of increasing dimension and estimating their normalizing constants. We propose here an alternative methodology named…
Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…
Filtering---estimating the state of a partially observable Markov process from a sequence of observations---is one of the most widely studied problems in control theory, AI, and computational statistics. Exact computation of the posterior…
We propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on Gibbs sampling with parallel tempering to solve nonlinear optimal control problems. The algorithm is applicable to nonlinear systems with dynamics that can be approximately…
We present Generative Monte Carlo (GMC), a novel paradigm for particle transport simulation that integrates generative artificial intelligence directly into the stochastic solution of the linear Boltzmann equation. By reformulating the…
We consider conditional tests for non-negative discrete exponential families. We develop two Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms which allow us to sample from the conditional space and to perform approximated tests. The first…
Sequential Monte Carlo squared (SMC$^2$) methods can be used for parameter inference of intractable likelihood state-space models. These methods replace the likelihood with an unbiased particle filter estimator, similarly to particle Markov…
We present a formalism of the transition matrix Monte Carlo method. A stochastic matrix in the space of energy can be estimated from Monte Carlo simulation. This matrix is used to compute the density of states, as well as to construct…
We present the Monte Carlo with Absorbing Markov Chains (MCAMC) method for extremely long kinetic Monte Carlo simulations. The MCAMC algorithm does not modify the system dynamics. It is extremely useful for models with discrete state spaces…
Monte Carlo algorithms simulate some prescribed number of samples, taking some random real time to complete the computations necessary. This work considers the converse: to impose a real-time budget on the computation, which results in the…
A new Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for simulating the dynamics of molecular systems characterized by hard-core interactions is introduced. In contrast to traditional Kinetic Monte Carlo approaches, where the state of the system is…
We review criteria for comparing the efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods with respect to the asymptotic variance of estimates of expectations of functions of state, and show how such criteria can justify ways of combining…
Parametric Markov chains (pMC) are used to model probabilistic systems with unknown or partially known probabilities. Although (universal) pMC verification for reachability properties is known to be coETR-complete, there have been efforts…
Quantum computing offers an alternative paradigm for addressing combinatorial optimization problems compared to classical computing. Despite recent hardware improvements, the execution of empirical quantum optimization experiments at scales…
Statistical inference in evolutionary models with site-dependence is a long-standing challenge in phylogenetics and computational biology. We consider the problem of approximating marginal sequence likelihoods under dependent-site models of…
We propose a method to sample stationary properties of solutions of stochastic differential equations, which is accurate and efficient if there are rarely visited regions or rare transitions between distinct regions of the state space. The…
We develop a novel advanced Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that is capable of sampling from the posterior distribution of non-linear state space models for both the unobserved latent states and the unknown model parameters. We…
Exact approximations of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a general emerging class of sampling algorithms. One of the main ideas behind exact approximations consists of replacing intractable quantities required to run standard…
We consider adaptive increasingly rare Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which are adaptive MCMC methods, where the adaptation concerning the "past'' happens less and less frequently over time. Under a contraction assumption with…